NVIDIA's financial crisis signals emerge, AI funding cycle faces risks

Smart Money Is Already Fleeing

Market warning signs are emerging. Peter Thiel and SoftBank are choosing to reduce their holdings in NVIDIA stock, while Michael Burry is positioning himself with put options. These actions suggest that institutional investors’ confidence in NVIDIA’s prospects is wavering. The decline in Bitcoin’s price has further intensified market risks, with analysts warning that if NVIDIA’s stock price drops again, it could trigger a chain reaction of forced liquidations.

Abnormal Financial Data Raises Alerts

According to BlockBeats, financial researcher Perera detected anomalies through profit algorithms, noting unusual fluctuations in NVIDIA’s financial reports—dropping from a high point to negative within 18 hours. Even more concerning is the imbalance in the balance sheet data:

• Accounts receivable that haven’t been settled for a year surged 89%, reaching $33.4 billion
• Average payment cycle extended to 53 days, indicating cash flow pressure
• Inventory of chips increased by 32% to $19.8 billion, showing signs of unsold stock risk
• Profit conversion rate is only 75%, far below the industry average of 95%

These figures hide signals of tight cash flow and declining asset quality.

The “Self-Loop” Trap in the AI Ecosystem

The capital flow map formed by NVIDIA and leading AI companies warrants caution:

NVIDIA invests in xAI, which then takes on debt to buy NVIDIA chips; Microsoft invests in OpenAI, which commits to purchasing Azure cloud services; Oracle provides cloud capacity to OpenAI, which in turn purchases NVIDIA chips. This closed-loop funding model seems perfect on the surface but actually amplifies risks layer by layer—when one link faces pressure, the entire ecosystem risks collapsing.

Timeline and Fair Value Reassessment

Perera’s timeline projection is concerning: a financial crisis could erupt by February 2026, a credit rating downgrade may occur in March, and financial restatements could be forced in April. Based on fundamental revaluation, NVIDIA’s fair value is approximately $71, and the current stock price is overvalued.

Investor Strategies

In light of potential AI bubble burst signals, Perera recommends investors shift toward asset allocations driven by “thermodynamics and game theory,” reducing reliance on central bank liquidity. With Bitcoin currently trading at $88.47K, diversification becomes a necessary strategy to mitigate risks associated with a single asset.

The capital game within the AI ecosystem has entered a dangerous zone, and the market needs more sober voices.