The non-farm payroll report was just released the day before yesterday, and tonight it's the turn for CPI. Here's a brief overview of the key points.
Currently, the market expects a 3.1% figure, and tonight's core focus is: does the CPI start with 2 or 3? If it hits 2.9% or lower, it indicates that inflation is still manageable, and the market will continue to bet on subsequent rate cuts. If it is 3.0% or rebounds above 3.1%, the narrative of sticky inflation will return, U.S. Treasury yields may rise, and tech stocks and risk assets could face pressure. But note that this data itself isn't very "clean" this time. Previously, due to the government shutdown, the data was mainly concentrated in the latter half of November, coupled with Thanksgiving sales, leading to significant price fluctuations and a risk of CPI distortion. More importantly, since October, the macro impact on BTC has changed. It used to be like one sun, now like three suns; a single data point is no longer sufficient to explain the market trend. Therefore, in actual trading, avoid making big moves and instead focus on short-term small waves—survive first, then consider the rest.
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The non-farm payroll report was just released the day before yesterday, and tonight it's the turn for CPI. Here's a brief overview of the key points.
Currently, the market expects a 3.1% figure, and tonight's core focus is: does the CPI start with 2 or 3? If it hits 2.9% or lower, it indicates that inflation is still manageable, and the market will continue to bet on subsequent rate cuts. If it is 3.0% or rebounds above 3.1%, the narrative of sticky inflation will return, U.S. Treasury yields may rise, and tech stocks and risk assets could face pressure. But note that this data itself isn't very "clean" this time. Previously, due to the government shutdown, the data was mainly concentrated in the latter half of November, coupled with Thanksgiving sales, leading to significant price fluctuations and a risk of CPI distortion. More importantly, since October, the macro impact on BTC has changed. It used to be like one sun, now like three suns; a single data point is no longer sufficient to explain the market trend. Therefore, in actual trading, avoid making big moves and instead focus on short-term small waves—survive first, then consider the rest.