#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 Global central bank game intensifies, where will asset allocation go?

A recent key signal worth noting: the new US administration has explicitly stated the need for a "low interest rate" Federal Reserve Chair. The underlying logic is straightforward—$9 trillion in maturing government bonds need to be rolled over, and printing money is inevitable.

But there is a contradiction right in front of us. US inflation remains stuck at around 3%, while Japan is quietly raising interest rates in reverse. The monetary policies of the two major central banks are completely opposite, which is rare in history. The last time such policy divergence occurred was during World War II, when inflation soared to 20%.

What does this mean for investors? Let's analyze one by one:

First, Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes may be activated again. Expectations of excessive dollar issuance combined with global asset safe-haven demand make this narrative plausible. Historically, whenever the dollar faces depreciation pressure, mainstream asset allocations tend to reconsider BTC's role.

Second, market volatility could become quite intense. The Fed is easing liquidity while maintaining hawkish rhetoric, and Japan is doing the opposite—this contradiction could cause market fragmentation in pricing. Both bulls and bears will find reasons, potentially leading to a double-sided squeeze in the short term.

Third, two data points to watch closely: US CPI monthly releases and the Bank of Japan minutes. Any unexpected signals could trigger a market breakout.

Honestly, what’s most uncomfortable now isn’t whether prices go up or down, but that everyone in the market is guessing the next move of the central banks. Are they really going to loosen policy to stimulate, or are they just playing the "wolf is coming" game again? This suspense itself is influencing volatility pricing.

What’s your view? Share your thoughts in the comments.