Bullish surge followed by a pullback + sideways weakness. Bitcoin surged past 90,000+ last night but then sharply declined, now falling below 86,000, with a daily drop of over 2%. The lowest touched 85,000. In the short term, it is oscillating around 85,000-86,000, dominated by bears. ✅ The core reasons for the decline (three main factors): 1. Tightening macro liquidity. The Fed's December "hawkish rate cut," with expectations of halving rate cuts in 2026, has cooled market liquidity benefits; the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, causing yen arbitrage positions to unwind, putting pressure on the crypto market (historically, a rate hike causes Bitcoin to fall 20%-31%). 2. Market internal stampede + selling pressure. After last night's surge, leveraged long positions were triggered, forcing the liquidation of over 520 million USD in long positions across the market; the October high-cost trapped positions (cost basis at 103,000) were sold during rebounds, combined with long-term holders reducing holdings, making spot selling pressure hard to absorb. 3. Institutional capital retreat. Bitcoin spot inflows turned into net outflows, with institutions taking profits and holding back. Standard Chartered directly lowered the year-end target price to 100,000, dampening market confidence. ✅ Key support and resistance ✔️ Support: 85,000 (mid-term vital line, below which look to 78,000-80,000) ✔️ Resistance: 88,000→91,000 (difficult to break without positive news) #加密市场观察