Gold and silver's three bull-bear cycles comparison: we are now in the tail end of the bull market!

The rotation of the three bull-bear cycles of gold and silver aligns closely with the previously shared logic of BTC and ETH strength transmission. The core pattern has never changed:

Each bull market is led by gold, starting from the initial bull phase to the mid-bull phase. Thanks to its safe-haven properties and liquidity premium, gold's gains remain superior to silver. Once gold shows a divergence at the top and stalls, silver begins a steep upward move with pulse-like surges, often signaling the end of the precious metals bull market—this essentially reflects a shift in "core-satellite asset allocation" of capital.

In the early and mid-bull phases, capital prioritizes "core assets" like gold, seeking safety margins and certain returns; in the late stage, market risk appetite rises, capital withdraws from core assets and shifts to "satellite assets" like silver, which have industrial attributes and valuation recovery potential, aiming for the last wave of excess returns.

From a technical perspective, although silver shows a strong breakout trend, it has just pierced the historical resistance levels of the 2011 and 1980 bull markets, similar to ETH's trend characteristics: volatility centrality shifts upward, short-term pulse movements are intense, but long-term absolute return elasticity falls short of expectations.

The conclusion is clear: the current precious metals market has entered a stage of irrational prosperity similar to that of cryptocurrencies two months ago. The tail-end "short squeeze + gambling" features are prominent, and tail risks continue to accumulate.

Final reminder: the bear market correction cycle for precious metals is much longer than that of cryptocurrencies. The deepest correction cycle lasts over 36 months (starting from three years). Historically, two bear market correction cycles lasted 20 and 9 years respectively. Do not chase highs blindly and remain vigilant against significant subsequent pullbacks! #GateLaunchpadKDK认购上线 #非农数据超预期 #市场触底了吗？ #BTC #ETH