Crypto Breakfast | December 18

1. Federal Reserve Board Member Waller: Monetary policy remains in a restrictive zone, with room for rate cuts. The labor market indicates the Fed should continue to cut rates. The current interest rate level is 50 to 100 basis points above the neutral rate. (Currently, Wall Street favors Waller as Fed Chair, but his relationship with Trump is average.)
2. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: The “Trump account” can help ensure all Americans own stocks. 38% of Americans do not hold stocks, and our goal is to reduce that to zero.
3. The three major U.S. stock indices all declined: Dow down 0.47%, S&P 500 down 1.16%, Nasdaq down 1.81%. Nvidia(NVDA.O) fell 3.8%, Oracle(ORCL.N) fell 5.4%. AI stocks declined, which also contributed to the crash of Bitcoin.
4. Federal Reserve releases new policy statement: Removes the 2023 language about “novel/unprecedented activities” and replaces it with a new framework encouraging innovation.
5. Coinbase Conference: Promoting the “All-in-One Exchange” approach: integrating stocks, prediction markets, Solana DEX, and more. Coinbase upgrades the “trading entry” to a “financial entry.”
6. Lightning Labs releases the latest taproot upgrade version v0.7, moving asset issuance on Bitcoin from “experimental” to “practical.” It allows you to receive money as easily as using a bank account (static addresses), audit supply transparently like auditing a listed company (supply audit), and perform large transfers smoothly like native Bitcoin (multi-path payments).
7. ChainOperaAI is accused of copying Nofx. ChainOperaAI raised $15 million and has launched on Binance.
8. BNB Chain stablecoin supply exceeds $15 billion, with a new stablecoin “U” upcoming. Integrates liquidity to support large-scale application scenarios.
9. Hyperliquid: Plans to confirm via voting that the HYPE aid fund tokens have been burned, permanently removing circulating supply. Reducing supply may stabilize HYPE’s price and boost holder confidence.
10. HashKey Holdings listed on HKEX, with share price falling below the offering price. Despite four years of losses, it went public against the trend, marking the mainstreaming of crypto companies.
11. ETHGAS launches Ethereum block space futures market, with $800 million in liquidity commitments, and raises $12 million through token round financing.
12. @yearnfi YFI was attacked, resulting in a total loss of about $300,000.
13. DTCC, in partnership with Digital Asset Holdings and Canton Network, is tokenizing DTC-escrowed securities on-chain. This marks the first step toward real-world asset tokenization on distributed ledger technology (DLT), aiming to improve efficiency and market transparency.

Nasdaq applies for a 23-hour trading mechanism, meaning liquidity will be continuously provided both on-chain and off-chain through hedging.

【Bitcoin Market Analysis】 Last night, U.S. stocks continued to decline, with Nvidia, Oracle, and other AI sector stocks falling further, triggering a risk asset sell-off. However, Waller’s speech last night provided some reassurance. He is pro-Republican but not a Trump fanatic. He stated that according to the central rate policy, there could be 2-5 rate cuts next year, meaning at least 2 and possibly up to 4-5. Currently, the market remains in panic, with stock panic driven by the AI bubble and crypto panic driven by Japan’s rate hike.

Bitcoin has not been able to break above $90,000 in the past 4 hours. Last night, the US stock market finally pushed to $90,000 at open but failed to hold it for more than a few minutes, resulting in a sharp reversal. Over the past month, Bitcoin’s price has been heavily manipulated, with candlesticks drawn arbitrarily.

Next, Bitcoin’s key levels to watch are: whether it can effectively hold above $90,000, and whether it can break below $85,000. Any significant move beyond these levels—either breaking down or holding steady—will trigger intense volatility. The final panic of this month will occur tomorrow; if the Bank of Japan announces a rate hike and there is no significant decline this week, the market may stabilize and then enter a new phase of consolidation.