#比特币价格分析 Recent sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin prices have attracted widespread market attention. By analyzing on-chain data, I observe that the behavior of large holder addresses remains relatively stable, with no obvious signs of selling. This somewhat echoes JPMorgan's maintained target price of $170,000. It is worth noting that Bitcoin's current enterprise value to held Bitcoin value ratio (mNAV) remains above 1.0, which to some extent alleviates market concerns about "forced selling."

In the medium to long term, as the US regulatory environment gradually clarifies, institutional investors' confidence in the cryptocurrency market has increased. Ripple CEO predicts that Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by the end of 2026. Although the specific figure needs verification, it reflects industry leaders' optimistic outlook on the market prospects.

However, we should not ignore short-term risk factors. The reduction in Bitcoin production costs may influence miner behavior. If prices remain below production costs for a long time, it could trigger a "self-reinforcing cycle" similar to 2018. Therefore, it is recommended to closely monitor the upcoming index decision by MSCI, which could become an important factor influencing short-term market trends.