This week's Bank of Japan interest rate decision has sent shockwaves through global markets. If interest rates truly rise to 0.75%, it will be the first time in 30 years that Japan has surpassed this level—an unprecedented scenario since 1995.
Why does a small island nation's monetary policy make traders holding crypto assets feel uneasy? The answer lies in the global financial history of the past 20 years. For a long time, the Japanese yen has been the cheapest borrowing tool worldwide. Hedge funds and institutional investors have simple strategies: borrow yen at extremely low costs, exchange for USD, and sweep through U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and even large-scale digital asset markets. This cross-border arbitrage has fueled rounds of asset inflation.
Japan's decision to raise interest rates essentially signals the end of an era—the end of the "global cheap money" era. The arbitrage chain is broken, and hot money will inevitably seek an exit. Selling off crypto assets and repatriating funds to Japan becomes the natural choice, and the market will face pressure from this capital outflow.
The deeper risk is that major central banks around the world are already raising rates or maintaining high levels. Japan has been the last "fortress"; stepping out of this position means the complete end of the zero-interest-rate era. In such an environment, the valuation logic of risk assets must be re-priced.
Next, three indicators should be closely monitored: the USD/JPY exchange rate trend, the performance of the U.S. tech sector, and changes in Bitcoin inflows on exchanges. These data points can directly reflect the true state of capital flows and market sentiment.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
6 Likes
Reward
6
2
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
CafeMinor
· 18h ago
Wow, Japan making this move, is the arbitrage chain really about to break? It seems inevitable that this wave of dumping will happen.
View OriginalReply0
governance_ghost
· 12-18 02:40
Japan's interest rate hike is gradually approaching, and now arbitrage trading must be truly settled. It's time to say goodbye to the era of cheap yen. Where can hot money go?
This week's Bank of Japan interest rate decision has sent shockwaves through global markets. If interest rates truly rise to 0.75%, it will be the first time in 30 years that Japan has surpassed this level—an unprecedented scenario since 1995.
Why does a small island nation's monetary policy make traders holding crypto assets feel uneasy? The answer lies in the global financial history of the past 20 years. For a long time, the Japanese yen has been the cheapest borrowing tool worldwide. Hedge funds and institutional investors have simple strategies: borrow yen at extremely low costs, exchange for USD, and sweep through U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and even large-scale digital asset markets. This cross-border arbitrage has fueled rounds of asset inflation.
Japan's decision to raise interest rates essentially signals the end of an era—the end of the "global cheap money" era. The arbitrage chain is broken, and hot money will inevitably seek an exit. Selling off crypto assets and repatriating funds to Japan becomes the natural choice, and the market will face pressure from this capital outflow.
The deeper risk is that major central banks around the world are already raising rates or maintaining high levels. Japan has been the last "fortress"; stepping out of this position means the complete end of the zero-interest-rate era. In such an environment, the valuation logic of risk assets must be re-priced.
Next, three indicators should be closely monitored: the USD/JPY exchange rate trend, the performance of the U.S. tech sector, and changes in Bitcoin inflows on exchanges. These data points can directly reflect the true state of capital flows and market sentiment.