#BTC Based on the current market landscape, institutional reports, and industry dynamics, the future of the crypto market will exhibit a trend of short-term pressure adjustments, a gradual warming in the medium term as practical value is released, and a deep transformation towards institutionalization and practicality in the long term. The core characteristics and key variables at different stages are as follows:

1. Short-term (1 - 3 months): Likely to maintain a low-volatility, low-participation adjustment trend. The Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates in December, which historically has triggered a 20%-30% correction in Bitcoin. In the short term, this will suppress risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Currently, the crypto market is in a deleveraging phase with speculative funds clearing out. Mainstream coins like Bitcoin have just experienced a correction, and without new catalysts like ETF approvals, Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate between $70,000 and $100,000. Ethereum will also remain under the influence of mainstream market sentiment, making large rebounds difficult. However, institutions have not fully withdrawn; spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum still see phased net inflows, providing some market support and preventing systemic collapse.

2. Medium-term (3 - 12 months): The trend will diverge but generally trend upward, with institutional entry being a key driver. CoinShares predicts that if the economy experiences a soft landing, Bitcoin could break through $150,000; under baseline scenarios, it can maintain a range of $110,000 to $140,000. On one hand, clearer regulations will attract continuous institutional capital inflows. The US is highly likely to advance legislation on crypto market structure, with the four major brokerages possibly opening Bitcoin ETF allocations, and retirement plans may also include Bitcoin. On the other hand, industry practical value will accelerate its implementation, with RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization expanding continuously. The market cap of stablecoins is expected to grow further. Applications combining AI and crypto, Bitcoin infrastructure, and other areas will attract VC investments. Upgrades in Ethereum Layer-2 throughput will boost ecosystem activity, further driving up coin prices. Additionally, the 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined by March 2026, and its scarcity will support prices.

3. Long-term (more than 1 year): The market will fully enter a mature stage dominated by institutionalization and practicality, potentially ending the "four-year cycle" theory. The market will move away from pure speculation and toward integration with traditional finance. Digital assets will become a supplement to the existing financial system, with stablecoins potentially being widely used in payments and cross-border transactions. Tokenized deposits by banks like JPMorgan will further expand. The industry landscape will become clearer, with accelerated exchange industry consolidation. Mining companies will shift significantly toward higher-margin HPC (High-Performance Computing), and mining modes will diversify into self-mining with ASIC manufacturers and sovereign nation mining. Bitcoin, as a non-sovereign store of value, will benefit from the gradual erosion of the US dollar reserve status and is expected to appreciate long-term. Public chains with practical applications (such as Ethereum, Solana) and crypto assets with sustainable income will stand out under institutional backing, becoming core market forces.