Why do we believe BTC will quickly return to the $126,000 high point

Conclusion first: What truly drives BTC to new highs is not sentiment, not technical patterns, but the fact that the bond market is losing its original “anchor function”.

When “risk-free assets” are no longer risk-free, capital must seek new anchors, and this time, BTC is standing in that position.

The current macro environment is extremely abnormal

If we only look at macro data, this market cycle has almost already written “recession” on its face:

Unemployment rate rises to 4.6%,
Oil prices fall below $60,
Employment data shows negative growth for two consecutive months,
Corporate bankruptcies and default rates are rising simultaneously.

In any macro finance textbook, such a combination would only correspond to one outcome: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield should be falling rapidly.

Because the bond market would be preemptively trading expectations of recession, rate cuts, and deflation.

But the reality is: yields stubbornly refuse to fall

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stuck at 4.16% high.
This in itself is abnormal.

This indicates that there is ongoing, structural selling pressure on U.S. bonds. Capital is not evaluating “how good the U.S. economy is,” but is re-evaluating a deeper underlying issue:

Is this country’s long-term credit still reliable?

From a cyclical issue to a debt-servicing capacity issue

From a traditional bond trader’s perspective, the logic should be simple:
Weak economy → Buy government bonds as a safe haven.

But in reality, many people buy bonds only to find bond prices are still falling.
Safe-haven assets are turning into risk sources.

As a result, the market’s focus has fundamentally shifted:

If I buy a 10-year U.S. Treasury now,
will the dollars I get back in 10 years still be worth something?

This is no longer a cycle game but a question about debt repayment ability and currency purchasing power.

Recession means lower tax revenue,
Unemployment means increased social security spending,
Housing defaults are rising,
Corporate debt chains are starting to break.

The fiscal gap is not narrowing but expanding exponentially.

The bond market has already made a choice for us

In theory, the U.S. has two paths.

The first is to allow debt to clear.
Business failures, bank stress, real estate liquidation, debt restructuring, asset prices genuinely falling.
This is “healthy” in economics, but politically almost equivalent to self-destruction.

The bond market does not believe the U.S. will choose this path.

The second is to combine fiscal and monetary policy, using inflation to dilute everything.
Debt cannot be stopped, only continually postponed;
Deficits keep expanding, and at least within political cycles, systemic problems are not allowed to emerge.

Thus, we see a very strange but real phenomenon:
On one side, smart money is selling off U.S. bonds,
On the other side, the Fed is starting to buy back and support prices.

Yields are “rigidly” held at high levels, economic data signals recession, but bond prices refuse to recover.

When the “risk-free rate” fails, capital must find a new anchor

Over the past 40 years, the global financial system had only one absolute anchor:
U.S. Treasuries = risk-free assets.

But now we see:
Bond prices are falling,
Real yields are unstable,
Fiscal credit is being continuously eroded.

So capital begins to ask a very primitive question:

If government bonds are no longer safe, what should I allocate to?

The answer is being spoken through prices.

Gold, silver have already taken a step ahead; BTC might be the next

Recently, the trends in gold, silver, and industrial metals have sent clear signals.
Gold broke through $4,300/oz,
Silver broke through $66/oz.

As traditional safe-haven assets become increasingly crowded and valuations bubble up,
BTC’s “digital gold” attribute will be truly re-priced.

This is also why, in the past two weeks,
whether it’s Ark Invest, Tom Lee, or MicroStrategy, they are all accelerating their allocation pace.

Conclusion

BTC returning to $126,000 is not because the market has become optimistic,
but precisely because the certainty of the traditional financial system is collapsing.

When bonds are no longer anchors,
when risk-free rates fail,
capital will ultimately seek a new value carrier that cannot be arbitrarily diluted.

This time, BTC is no longer an alternative answer,
but is becoming that unavoidable multiple-choice question.