2025.12.17 Daily Report

Yesterday, the United States released the November non-farm payroll data, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.5%, indicating that the US labor market is currently quite weak.

However, the market reaction was still positive; after the data was released, BTC actually rebounded.

This suggests that market sentiment is still okay. Although the unemployment rate is rising, the market does not see this as a sign of an economic recession; instead, it is more conducive to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.

CME's Federal Reserve observation tool shows that the probability of the Fed cutting rates in January has increased to 25.5%.

However, it is worth noting that recent data shared by Ark Invest revealed that last September, the unemployment rate among recent US college graduates had already soared to around 7%.

In other words, one in ten young people just graduated cannot find a job. Historically, this is usually a precursor to an economic crisis.

Moreover, this time, it is not just cyclical fluctuation but a wave of structural shocks brought by AI.

Because current AI tools can perform basic white-collar jobs at almost zero cost, such as filling out forms, creating PPTs, and writing simple code, companies no longer need to hire large numbers of recent graduates. It is clear that the current US employment market environment is quite poor.

From on-chain data, the turnover rate of BTC has surged significantly in the past two days, indicating that short-term investors have increased their selling pressure.

However, looking at the chip structure, early investors remain relatively rational, and investors trapped at high levels have not sold off in large quantities.

Currently, among addresses holding more than 100 BTC, an additional 8,000 BTC have been added in the past week, while exchange reserves have decreased by about 36,000 BTC.

If all these reduced reserves are bought by whales, the upper limit should be around 41,000 BTC.

On the ETH side, BMNR continued to add 48,049 ETH today.

Overall, December is the holiday season for Christmas and year-end vacations in North America, which is considered the period with the worst market liquidity. Coupled with various macro events gradually unfolding, market volatility will increase.

Next, attention can be paid to Thursday’s CPI inflation data; the lower the number, the more favorable it is for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

Friday will see the Bank of Japan's interest rate adjustment, with a 25 basis point rate hike being almost certain. Although this is a bearish signal, the market has already priced it in, so the impact will not be too significant.

The key is whether the Bank of Japan will signal a continued rate hike, which will influence short-term market sentiment and prices.