#数字资产市场洞察 🚨 The Hidden Concerns Behind the Unexpected Non-Farm Rebound: Is the US Economy Really Fine? How Should the Crypto Market Respond?

The latest non-farm payroll data just came out: 64,000 new jobs added, and the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%. There’s a bit of a strange vibe in this data. 👇 🧵

1️⃣ What’s Behind the Numbers
Adding 64,000 jobs sounds good, but it’s actually just a recovery from last month’s -105,000. Beneath the surface of these seemingly impressive figures, actual employment growth shows little sign of improvement. Even more alarming is the spike in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, a four-year high, with recession indicators like Sam Rules also warning loudly. Wages only increased by 0.1% month-over-month, consumer spending has already cooled off, and the inflation excuse is no longer tenable.

2️⃣ Changing the Macro Logic
The Federal Reserve really has no good options left. The combination of high unemployment and low wages means the door to rate hikes is completely closed. The rate cut cycle expected in 2026 will likely need to be accelerated. The market is shifting from the previous "fighting inflation" logic to a new focus on "preventing recession."

3️⃣ What Medicine Does the Crypto World Need? (Key Point 📝)

📉 Short-term is a hurdle
Concerns about recession will directly impact the crypto market, with Bitcoin and altcoins possibly pulling back along with the US stock market. When risk aversion is high, cash is king, and volatility is inevitable.

📈 The Medium to Long Term Is the Main Course
With the unemployment rate hitting 4.6%, the Fed’s money-printing machine will have to kick into gear. Once the US dollar index (DXY) weakens, Bitcoin’s role as "digital gold" will be activated, which is the core logic of its benefit. Altcoins will only have a chance to perform once rate cuts are truly implemented; currently, the bloodsucking phenomenon is still quite severe.

4️⃣ How to Operate More Smartly
Avoid piling on leverage; the emotional swings after data releases can easily cause double whipsaws. Every decline triggered by poor economic data is like the market digging a hole in advance for next year’s liquidity. Keep a close eye on the US dollar index (DXY); once key support levels break, it’s a signal to charge forward.

💡 Core Viewpoint: Non-farm data has laid the groundwork for bullish expectations of ( rate cuts, but at the same time, it also plants the seed of ) recession risk. The current strategy is to stay calm and hold onto your chips.