#NFP After weeks of delay due to the US government shutdown, investors finally received the employment data for October and November. ▪️ The US economy added 64,000 jobs in November, surpassing the "Dow Jones" forecast of 45,000. However, the picture was not entirely positive in the labor market, as the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. Additionally, non-farm payrolls decreased by 105,000 jobs in October. ▪️ On their part, investors are divided into two camps: the first sees the economy as weak, while the second considers the numbers to be volatile due to the six-week government shutdown, ignoring them and looking ahead. ▪️ Meanwhile, the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next month remain unchanged after the jobs report, still indicating a small chance of a new cut in January. ▪️ Peter Bokfar, Investment Director at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, says: "There is a lot of confusion here, but it's hard to ignore the rise in the unemployment rate, and most of the added jobs came from the healthcare and social assistance sectors." ▪️ Meanwhile, Chris Zaccarelli, Investment Director at Northlight Asset Management, states: "In theory, these data should be good for the market in the short term, but it might be more like 'be careful what you wish for.' While markets usually welcome rate cuts, if the Fed is forced to cut aggressively next year due to the economy entering a recession, the stock market will decline instead of rising." ▪️ Adam Hites, Multi-Asset Investment Head at Janus Henderson Investors, adds: "This reading alone should not significantly alter expectations for the rate cut path, nor is it low enough to pressure high-risk assets. Although October jobs were very low, government jobs were the main negative contributor as expected, while private sector jobs remained positive, making October's reading less concerning."
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US Government Jobs Report Released
#NFP
After weeks of delay due to the US government shutdown, investors finally received the employment data for October and November.
▪️ The US economy added 64,000 jobs in November, surpassing the "Dow Jones" forecast of 45,000. However, the picture was not entirely positive in the labor market, as the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. Additionally, non-farm payrolls decreased by 105,000 jobs in October.
▪️ On their part, investors are divided into two camps: the first sees the economy as weak, while the second considers the numbers to be volatile due to the six-week government shutdown, ignoring them and looking ahead.
▪️ Meanwhile, the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next month remain unchanged after the jobs report, still indicating a small chance of a new cut in January.
▪️ Peter Bokfar, Investment Director at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, says: "There is a lot of confusion here, but it's hard to ignore the rise in the unemployment rate, and most of the added jobs came from the healthcare and social assistance sectors."
▪️ Meanwhile, Chris Zaccarelli, Investment Director at Northlight Asset Management, states: "In theory, these data should be good for the market in the short term, but it might be more like 'be careful what you wish for.' While markets usually welcome rate cuts, if the Fed is forced to cut aggressively next year due to the economy entering a recession, the stock market will decline instead of rising."
▪️ Adam Hites, Multi-Asset Investment Head at Janus Henderson Investors, adds: "This reading alone should not significantly alter expectations for the rate cut path, nor is it low enough to pressure high-risk assets. Although October jobs were very low, government jobs were the main negative contributor as expected, while private sector jobs remained positive, making October's reading less concerning."