#市场触底了吗？

The bear market is not over yet; caution is needed when bottom fishing
Zizeng once said: “Newbies die from chasing highs, veterans die from bottom fishing,” when is the right time to bottom fish? How to do it? It has always been the Gödel conjecture in the crypto world. Currently, after experiencing another sharp decline in the early morning, Bitcoin is reported at $86,200. Has the market bottomed out now? Is it time to “buy buy buy”? I believe that the bear market does not declare a bottom; the decline has just begun, and bottom fishing requires caution!
Technical Indicators -- The market is in the early stage of a bear market
Last week, Little God of Wealth mentioned in many articles that Bitcoin entered a technical bear market after breaking below the 60-week moving average near 98,000. You can rely on the daily resistance level around 94,000 for shorting. The decline at this level also indirectly confirms Bitcoin’s entry into a bear market. Another phenomenon is that recent altcoins have become active again, indicating that funds are not optimistic about mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, and are instead shifting into altcoin speculation. Currently, the MACD histogram continues to shrink, and the difference between the fast and slow lines narrows, indicating that upward momentum is weakening. Combined with the narrowing of the price oscillation range, a divergence between volume and price has appeared—that is, increased volatility with decreasing trading volume, which usually signals that the market is approaching a decision point. Divergence signals frequently appear in the early stages of a bear market; the current indicator state is highly similar to previous downturn cycles. When the price breaks below Fibonacci retracement levels (such as the 0.618 support), it triggers concentrated stop-loss selling. On-chain data shows that this zone is a dense area of institutional holdings; losing it leads to a shift in market sentiment to pessimism and accelerates downward pressure. Meanwhile, the critical point of miner selling pressure has been breached, with some mining machines entering a loss state, further amplifying supply-side pressure. Despair has not yet set in the market; many still believe a strong rebound is imminent. These are all signs of the early stage of a bear market.
Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle curse reappears?
Analyst Gautam Chhugani from Bernstein pointed out that this decline reflects investor anxiety over the four-year cycle pattern—this pattern has seen peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Perhaps the four-year curse lacks scientific basis, but it exacerbates investor panic. Many investors, believing that 2025 will repeat, sell in the market’s weakness in the fourth quarter, which to some extent becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Many institutions also use this “script” to short the market. Therefore, I believe the bear market is still in its early stages and not about to end soon.
Trading Strategy -- Appropriately short, consider short-term long after breaking previous lows
1. Currently, it is advisable to be cautious with bottom fishing; you can take some short positions on rebounds. However, given that the decline has already been significant, shorting in this situation should be done with light positions. If you already hold short positions, you can continue to hold and let profits run for a while.
2. When can you bottom fish? The saying “no break, no establishment” applies. I think when the market breaks below the previous correction low of 80,000, you can try bottom fishing or short-term long positions, with a stop loss around 77,000; ETH corresponds to around 26,000, with a stop loss at about 2,500.
3. An interesting aspect of this bear market is that while Bitcoin and Ethereum are falling, altcoins are not following suit, indicating that funds have not exited the market on a large scale. Therefore, you can also allocate some altcoins to temporarily avoid risk. Prioritize: the currently hot AI sector, RWA sector, and some altcoins with strong institutional investment.
What are your thoughts on this? Feel free to leave a comment. Wishing everyone daily prosperity.