ETH faces short-term resistance, struggling to break 3365, with large orders at 3055—how to identify rebound traps and bottom-fishing opportunities

Technical Alert: Weak Rebound, Multiple Resistance Layers

Ethereum(ETH) currently trades around 2.95K, with a 24-hour decline of -1.72%. The short-term trend is quite tangled. Although there are slight signs of a rebound on the 1-hour chart, closer inspection of indicators reveals hidden risks—the MACD white and yellow lines have a death cross below the zero line, serving as a warning signal that the rebound momentum is insufficient. While the candlestick direction is upward, it encounters dense sell orders around 3640, and the rebound stalls significantly at 3500. The key support level at 3272.31 is also tightly guarded.

Even more concerning is that ETH has broken below the 200-day moving average, confirming a bearish market structure on the technical side. This indicates that 3518 is not the bottom, and the next resistance target is around 3400. When technical weakness combines with continuous capital outflows, breaking through 3365 tonight will be extremely difficult—most likely resulting in a “false breakout,” trapping late buyers once again.

Market Capital Flow Reveals the Truth: Large Investors’ Bottoming Signal

Market data shows a large accumulation of buy orders around 3055, which is an important signal of major players’ cost basis. When the price drops to this zone, it often means big investors are starting to buy on dips, preparing for the next rebound. However, the current price still has some room to fall from this level, so investors should prepare for layered responses.

Three Ironclad Risk Management Rules

1. Do not chase high during rebounds: If profits appear when rebounding to 3365-3500, exit decisively. Do not rely on the idea that “breaking through resistance will lead to a big rally”—before the MACD death cross improves, such resistance levels are often trap zones that attract chasing buyers, only to turn downward afterward.

2. Medium- to long-term positioning at 3055: If the market truly breaks below 3200, do not panic. The large buy orders at 3055 provide a safety cushion. Those looking to bottom fish can place orders in batches, avoiding full position entry at once, and should keep 20% of funds in reserve for further dips.

3. Stop-loss execution is mandatory: For those already holding positions, if the price rebounds to 3450 but fails to break through 3500, cut losses and switch positions. Waiting for a drop to 3200 to regret is too late—those trapped often miss the exit window by “waiting a bit longer.”

Current Situation: Cautiously Optimistic, Layered Responses Recommended

Recent market features include “weakness at high levels and accumulation at lows.” In the short term, there will be repeated battles around 3365-3365, but breakthroughs are unlikely. Meanwhile, the large orders around 3055 suggest long-term bulls are lurking. This ETH market is neither a simple “wolf coming” panic nor a clear “golden pit” opportunity; it’s a battlefield requiring precise timing and strict stop-losses.