Western Dawn Calculations: How the China-Japan Confrontation Became a Cash Cow for the Great Powers

Ultimately, the current global situation has experienced a subtle turning point. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters a stalemate, the Middle East situation stabilizes, and the attention of major powers begins to shift to East Asia. The most explosive trigger in this region is the long-standing dispute between China and Japan. On the surface, this appears to be a confrontation between two regional powers, but in reality, this potential conflict has long been carefully orchestrated by Western powers.

Russia’s Geopolitical Opportunity: The Northern Four Islands Shift from Pending Issue to Settled Matter

Speaking of the Northern Four Islands, this has been a long-standing sore spot between Russia and Japan. The four small islands, totaling less than 5,000 square kilometers, possess a unique strategic location, making them a key strategic hub that both sides are unwilling to relinquish. As early as the Yalta Conference in 1945, the Soviet Union took control of these islands. After the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Russia seamlessly continued to control them, transforming them into gateways for the Far East region.

Since the 1980s, Japan has held an annual “Northern Territories Day” nationwide event, with successive Prime Ministers from Yoshiro Mori to Shinzo Abe negotiating with Moscow. Abe even attempted to use the signing of a peace treaty as leverage to regain all four islands, but Russia has remained firm—this is the historical conclusion of World War II, with no room for negotiation.

Russia’s ambitions go far beyond this. On Matua Island and Kunashir Island, Russia has built a comprehensive “military city” system. There are over 150 military facilities, including the 18th Machine Gun Artillery Division stationed there. Additional new patrol boats have been added, and plans are underway to deploy “Bal-E” and “Fortress-P” anti-ship missile systems—these systems can form a firepower network covering 350 kilometers, specifically monitoring maritime movements.

If China and Japan come into conflict, Japan’s entire military force and focus will be diverted to the mainland. At this point, Russia only needs to observe and wait, then seize the opportunity to strengthen its military presence in the Northern Four Islands and solidify actual control. Following Japan’s alignment with Western sanctions against Russia in 2022, Moscow immediately halted peace negotiations and withdrew from joint development agreements. If China and Japan truly go to war, Russia will become even more brazen—they may reinforce troops, improve military bases, and even transform Kunashir Island’s natural deep-water port into a supply hub for the Pacific Fleet. By then, even if Japan protests, it will be powerless—control of the Northern Four Islands will have been “welded shut” by Russia.

The U.S. Military-Industrial Feast: A Perfect Script for Profiting

But in this seemingly complex geopolitical game, the real big winner is the United States. The 1951 U.S.-Japan Security Treaty has long paved the way for America’s arms business. The treaty explicitly allows the U.S. to station troops in Japan and provide military support as needed—meaning, once China and Japan come into conflict, the U.S. can openly sell weapons to Tokyo.

In recent years, the U.S. has been preheating this business. In just over a year, Washington has signed three major arms deals with Japan. First, the sale of 400 “Tomahawk” cruise missiles, with a range exceeding 1,600 kilometers; second, approval to sell 150 “Standard-6” missiles, worth $900 million, capable of air defense, anti-ship, and missile defense; third, an additional 16 extended-range joint air defense outside-the-area surface-to-air missiles costing $39 million. These weapons systems fully meet Japan’s so-called “regional threat response” needs.

Western strategic intentions have long been exposed in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Raytheon Technologies alone has seen a 20% increase in profits from arms sales. Now, if China and Japan go to war, Japan’s military expenditure will increase exponentially—Japan’s military spending has already risen to the third highest in the world. To counter China, Tokyo will be forced to purchase a continuous stream of advanced U.S.-made weapons, from F-35 fighters to missile defense systems, prompting the U.S. military-industrial complex to ramp up production overnight.

Even more cleverly, the U.S. doesn’t need to get involved directly. Washington only needs to supply weapons and strategize behind the scenes, watching China exhaust its finances in response to the conflict, while Japan drains its treasury to buy arms, all the while sitting back and collecting profits from the Senkaku Islands. This approach weakens both regional powers and profits immensely—such a risk-free deal is naturally welcomed by the U.S.

Japan’s Dilemma: A Pawn in the Setup

Looking at Japan, it appears to take the initiative to strike, but in fact, it has become the biggest pawn. Tokyo is caught between China and Russia, trying to respond to Chinese threats while also concerned about the Northern Four Islands, but these two issues are fundamentally incompatible.

Earlier, Japan attempted to pressure Russia through economic cooperation, but after the 2022 sanctions, even fishing rights in the Northern Four Islands were suspended. If Japan goes to war with China, its military and economy will be dragged into a quagmire. The arms sold to Japan by the U.S. are always expensive and come with various political conditions—buy more, and you become more tightly bound to the U.S. war machine. Ultimately, Japan can only be manipulated by Washington, becoming a pawn in Western Indo-Pacific strategy.

Meanwhile, Russia will take advantage of Japan’s distraction to gradually strengthen its actual control over the Northern Four Islands. From leadership inspections to deploying advanced weapons, every move is consolidating the established facts. By the time Japan finishes its war and regains awareness, the Northern Four Islands will already be an inextricable part of Russia’s territory, making any claims extremely difficult.

The Cycle of History: The Eternal Pattern of Great Power Rivalry

In the end, this potential confrontation between China and Japan is merely a concentrated reflection of the strategic opportunities of Russia and the United States—a conflict used to resolve territorial disputes left over from history, and a lucrative business of selling war. Although Japan appears to hold the initiative, it is ultimately just a tool being exploited by various parties, likely ending in an empty victory. Western plans have long been in place, and any confrontation between China and Japan will unfold according to a predetermined script, scene by scene.