Towards $500,000: analysts anticipate a major bullish cycle for Bitcoin

Bitcoin is currently experiencing a period of increased interest from analysts, notably with bold predictions about its future price targets. Aurélien Ohayon, trader and CEO of XOR Strategy, recently made an ambitious projection on social media, suggesting that BTC could reach $500,000.

Predictive Models Point Toward Historic Highs

This prediction by Aurélien Ohayon aligns with the theories supported by PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, a quantitative economic framework that evaluates assets based on the ratio between total circulating supply (the “stock”) and the new supply generated over a given period (the “flow”). For Bitcoin, the stock represents all BTC in circulation, while the flow corresponds to the new bitcoins mined by miners.

According to PlanB, the S2F model remains highly relevant and has not been invalidated by previous cycles. Based on halving events (halving), the analyst estimates that the next bull cycle could push Bitcoin between $100,000 and $1 million.

A Shared Consensus Among Analysts

The arrival of 2025 marked a turning point, with several market observers believing that the growth phase has already begun. Aurélien Ohayon published a technical analysis on January 1st, complemented by trend lines and charting indicators, explicitly setting his $500,000 target as the goal for the current cycle.

With Bitcoin currently trading around $86,990, the distance to these targets remains significant but still within the scope of Bitcoin’s historical halving cycles. The next Bitcoin halving is a key catalyst that analysts are closely monitoring.

Understanding the Stock-to-Flow Model

The S2F model is based on the idea that scarce commodities are valued proportionally to their relative rarity. Applied to Bitcoin, each halving reduces the flow of new bitcoins, which theoretically increases the stock-to-flow ratio and, consequently, the asset’s price according to the model.

Although these projections are speculative, they continue to fuel debates about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects among market participants.