Is the four-year cycle theory of Bitcoin still valid? From structural changes, is there still a possibility for BTC to reach new highs?

If we look at the longer term, Bitcoin’s most classic narrative has always been the Four-Year Cycle Theory. Halving, rally, top, retracement—these have almost become the trading “faith” for many veteran players.

But as this cycle unfolds, the issues are becoming more apparent: ETFs have appeared, institutional investors are entering, market structure has changed—does Bitcoin still follow the same rhythm?

What is the Four-Year Cycle Theory of Bitcoin

The so-called four-year cycle is primarily based on the block reward halving.

In the past three cycles, this logic has been repeatedly validated and has thus been adopted by many investors as a “fundamental model.”

Why are people starting to doubt the cycle theory in this cycle

As we enter 2024–2025, Bitcoin has experienced several unprecedented changes in history.

In other words, Bitcoin is no longer a single asset driven solely by “halving supply,” but is increasingly influenced by macro capital structures.

What has changed in Bitcoin’s pricing logic after ETF emergence

The significance of ETFs is not just “more buyers,” but who is buying has changed.

This results in: Bitcoin’s price increases may be slower, but the duration of high levels will be longer.

Has the four-year cycle theory become invalid

A more accurate statement is: The cycle hasn’t disappeared, but its form has changed.

Halving still influences long-term supply and demand, but short- and medium-term prices are more affected by ETF capital flows and macro liquidity, the timing of peaks may be accelerated or extended, the probability of extreme parabolic rallies decreases.

The four-year cycle is no longer a “precise timetable,” but more like a long-term trend background.

Is there still a chance for BTC to reach new highs

From a structural perspective, the answer is not pessimistic.

However, it’s important to note that new highs may not appear with a “rapid rally,” but rather through a structural breakout after consolidation.

If the four-year cycle theory is no longer effective, how should we view the market

In this cycle, more effective indicators might be:

• Net inflow and outflow rhythm of ETFs
• Federal Reserve policies and global liquidity changes
• On-chain behavior of long-term holders
• Whether the high-level consolidation zone continues to rise

Compared to simply waiting for “how many months after the halving,” the market is shifting toward a capital-structure-driven model.

Summing up in one sentence

The Bitcoin four-year cycle theory has not completely failed, but has evolved from a “price prediction tool” into a “long-term background framework.”

Under the new structure led by ETFs and institutions, BTC still has the potential to reach new highs, but the pace will be slower, the path more winding, and it will test patience and position management more.

The market no longer lacks faith; what it needs is an understanding of the structural changes.