Tonight's Non-Farm Payroll report is coming, with market expectations of the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4% and 50,000 new non-farm jobs added. More notably, the statistical agency will also release the incomplete October data from last month.

The current situation is a bit delicate. Both the US stock and crypto markets are betting on a "soft landing" story—slowing economic growth without stalling, with the Federal Reserve's liquidity taps still open. The problem is that liquidity is already quite tight, and if the data exceeds expectations on the downside, BTC, as a risk asset, may not withstand the shock.

We've already seen this last night. After BTC fell below $86,000, it rebounded around $88,000, with over $500 million in leveraged longs being liquidated. The root cause boils down to two factors: aggressive leverage among longs and a sudden surge in market risk aversion.

However, good news comes from on-chain data indicating another signal. Long-term holders are not experiencing significant selling pressure; in fact, some large institutions (such as a leading asset management company) are quietly accumulating at low levels. If tonight's non-farm data does not produce a "black swan," a classic "sell the expectations, buy the facts" pattern is likely to unfold. Short-term target range is around 92,000 to 95,000.