Tonight, the US economic data will be released in a concentrated manner. This wave of impact should not be underestimated on the digital asset market.

At 21:30 Beijing time, the Non-Farm Payrolls report, retail sales, and wage growth data will be released simultaneously. These three indicators are the weather vanes of Federal Reserve policy expectations, directly influencing the direction of the US dollar index. Currently, with BTC hovering around $86,000, the strength or weakness of the dollar often becomes a key variable suppressing or supporting crypto assets—appreciation of the dollar usually means risk assets are under pressure.

Based on data expectations, there is a possibility that non-farm employment may exceed expectations. If the data shows strong performance, market expectations for further Fed rate cuts will decrease, putting pressure on risk assets led by Bitcoin. But here’s an interesting perspective: once employment data is strong, short-term risk sentiment may rebound, but at the same time, the dollar will also strengthen, creating a contradictory situation in the crypto market.

At 22:45, Manufacturing and Services PMI preliminary figures will be released. If the PMI remains robust, altcoins may get a chance to breathe, but the impact of a strong dollar still persists. At 23:00, business inventory data, though relatively minor, could become a turning point on a data-heavy day.

Honestly, tonight is more about a tug-of-war between sentiment and fundamentals. Rather than obsessing over K-lines and support levels, it’s better to manage risks in advance—if you can’t see through the direction, control your position size, and wait for the dust to settle before taking action. This might be the most prudent strategy.