Japan's rate hike appears not to be a black swan event on the surface, but the slow-accumulating variables behind it are silently reshaping the global capital landscape.

There are only two types of black swans capable of triggering a "big earthquake" in the market. Although the probability is extremely low, once triggered, the entire global financial system will face a massive shock.

**Risk Point 1: Japan is Forced to Accelerate Tightening**

If the yen spirals out of control, domestic inflation becomes unanchored, and the credibility of the central bank's policies is severely damaged, the Bank of Japan may be forced to raise interest rates rapidly. This would directly destroy the world's largest carry trade (yen carry). Once this trade collapses, global markets will experience a historic-scale sell-off.

**Risk Point 2: Japan's Rate Hike Coupled with the US Reinitiating Aggressive Tightening**

A more dangerous scenario is if both events happen simultaneously—Japan raises rates while the Federal Reserve restarts an aggressive tightening cycle. This combination directly cuts off the supply of global liquidity. Japan may seem like a supporting role, but this combined punch could severely damage global asset prices.

Fundamentally, the source of risk still lies in the US. Japan is just an added variable, but this dual pressure is undoubtedly deadly. As long as these two events do not occur simultaneously, Japan's independent rate hike is unlikely to pose a major threat. However, the market is already slowly digesting these expectations. History shows that those slowly evolving variables are often more lethal than sudden black swans.

Looking at recent market trends, Ethereum retreated from the 3150 level yesterday, and after the US stock market opened, it began to weaken, touching around 2870 at the lowest, a decline of about 200 points. This rapid decline reflects not only changes in macro sentiment but also a clear decrease in short-term market risk appetite.

If you missed this adjustment, don't rush to short the market. There will always be new opportunities, and the key is to understand the underlying logic.