Japan's 10-year government bond yield has already surged to 1.96%, just a step away from 2%. This number may seem insignificant, but the signal it sends is heavy — the world's last source of cheap funding may really be closing.

Over the years, global leverage trading and carry structures have almost all been built on the same assumption: that Japanese interest rates will remain low forever. That assumption is now being brutally challenged.

Once 2% is firmly established, a series of problems will surface. Is carry trading still profitable? How much longer can the game of low-cost financing continue? How many of those seemingly lofty asset prices are actually built on cheap liquidity?

These questions won't just stay in commentary; they will be answered directly in market prices.

I'm not very used to words like "black swan," but this feels more like a lit fuse — it may not explode immediately, but once the chain reaction starts, there's no hitting the pause button.

The window around October 19th is worth paying more attention to. Not that I can predict anything, but the biggest concern at this point is that the market continues to be oblivious.

My recent strategy is actually very simple: actively tighten. Don’t touch positions without a special reason, keep the bullets you need to save. In such an environment, rather than repeatedly worrying "Am I right or wrong," it's better to ensure you don't get caught in the storm.

Remember this: the ones who survive until the end are never those who always get the right answer, but those who dodge quickly enough when needed.

Current focus: $BEAT $ZEC $ASTER