#HasTheMarketBottomed?

📌📈📉Structured Market Stage Analysis and Trading Strategies.
🟢 1. Current Cryptocurrency Market Conditions.
1⃣. The bottoming issue stems from analysis of market structure, liquidity, and participant behavior. Short-term rebounds cannot be regarded as confirmation of the end of a downtrend unless accompanied by corresponding structural changes.
2⃣. As of December 15, 2025, Bitcoin's dynamics show a continuous decline: $90 140.7 on December 13, $89 063.9 on December 14, and $86 780.5 at 17:25 on December 15. This consecutive trend indicates that seller pressure still exists, and demand remains insufficient.
3⃣. Based on the above analysis, it is recommended to pay attention to the stance of long-term Chinese crypto investors, who traditionally focus more on capital preservation during market weakness rather than chasing the lowest prices.
🟡 2. Market Cycle Stage Assessment.
1⃣. From a cycle analysis perspective, the current market is in a downtrend or secondary liquidity distribution phase. This phase is characterized by a prolonged sideways range, leaning towards a downward bias.
2⃣. Behavioral factors also do not align with a typical bottom phase. Market interest still exists, and the expectation of a quick recovery remains widespread, which historically does not belong to the end of a decline.
3⃣. There is no panic selling, nor aggressive buybacks, indicating that the market has not yet completed the reallocation of positions among participants.
🔴 3. Practical Cases of Early Entry.
1⃣. Some traders I communicate with bought $GT at higher prices, interpreting the initial correction as the end of the downtrend.
2⃣. At the current price of approximately $10.27, these positions are still at a loss, prompting holders to shift from active trading to passive waiting for the overall market recovery.
3⃣. This case demonstrates the typical risk in a bear market stage: early entry turns trading strategies into holding losing positions, making risk management difficult.
🔵 4. Trading Strategies Under Current Market Conditions.
1⃣. Capital Structure. Most funds are allocated in $GT and $GT . This strategy ensures liquidity and reduces the impact of volatility on the portfolio.
2⃣. Trend Filtering. Entry decisions are based solely on analysis of larger timeframes. Short-term impulses are not used as a basis for strategy adjustments.
3⃣. Entry Conditions. Enter only when the following conditions are met: the lowest point is no longer being broken, the price range is stable, buying interest gradually increases, and selling pressure diminishes.
4⃣. Position Management. Build positions gradually, not all at once. Each trade has predefined risk levels and exit plans.
5⃣. Tactical Restrictions. The strategy deliberately avoids predicting local bottoms, as such tactics lack statistical advantage under bear market conditions.
🟠 5. Conclusion.
1⃣. As of December 15, 2025, there are no structural or behavioral signs indicating the end of the crypto market’s downtrend cycle.
2⃣. Bitcoin’s current price dynamics confirm the continuation of the bear market phase, rather than the start of a new upward trend.
3⃣. My answer is negative. The trading strategies employed aim to protect capital, control risks, and only act after confirming market structural changes.
In summary, it is recommended to focus on the stance of long-term Chinese crypto investors, who traditionally prioritize capital preservation during market weakness rather than chasing the lowest prices. Li Lin, a well-known Asian crypto community leader, entrepreneur, and investor, once said: “The market will always give a second chance to those who preserve capital in the toughest times.” This statement accurately reflects the current cycle stage; patience, discipline, and risk control are more important than trying to predict the bottom prematurely.
Therefore, I will not attempt to judge the market bottom in advance, as the market is still volatile.
📗📚🖋🖍 Terminology Manual:
а$USDT Time Frame — refers to the time interval displayed on a chart showing price movements, such as 1 hour, 1 day, 1 week#HasTheMarketBottomed? . Used to analyze market trends at different scales and determine short-term, medium-term, or long-term trends.
б) Volatility — a measure of the intensity of price fluctuations over a certain period. High volatility means sharp and frequent price changes, while low volatility indicates a more stable market.
в( Trend Filtering — an analysis method that makes trading decisions only in the direction of the dominant market trend. The goal is to filter out signals contrary to the main trend and reduce the risk of false entries.
г) Range — refers to price oscillations within a certain range, with no obvious upward or downward trend. Such ranges show relatively balanced buying and selling forces.
ґ) Uptrend — indicates that each new high and low is higher than the previous one, showing that buyers are dominant and the asset value is gradually increasing.