Current Price: 2,923.83 (-4.54%)

Volatility: ATR 487 / ATR% 16.67%
Meaning: We are currently in a “high volatility deleveraging period,” where the trend direction must give way to “risk control and triggers.”

Key Price Levels (sorted by importance)
• 2,984–3,020: Short-term central zone (a break below this level makes rebounds easily mistaken for “pullback selling points”)
• 3,063 / 3,154: Upper resistance levels (failure to recover indicates the trend remains bearish)
• 2,743–2,721: Next critical support zone (if broken, the weekly level will enter “deeper re-pricing”)

One sentence:
Currently, ETH is in the “fragile zone below 3,000,” and bulls aiming to turn the tide must first reclaim 2,984–3,020.

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2. What happened today (why did it fall)

Today, the most important event for global risk assets (including crypto) is not a specific crypto news, but:
The Bank of Japan’s 12/18–12/19 meeting “interest rate hike expectations” were further reinforced.
• The Bank of Japan Tankan survey shows improved corporate sentiment, and market expectations for BOJ rate hikes (from 0.5% to 0.75%) this week are “reconfirmed.” 
• Meanwhile, markets are waiting for a “BOJ + US data” combo punch, leading to decreased risk appetite and overall crypto weakness. 

The essence of such declines is usually:
Funding currency (Yen) expectations tighten → arbitrage/leverage risk budget decreases → high-liquidity assets (ETH) are sold first.

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3. What will happen tomorrow (12/16 “trigger”)

Tomorrow (12/16), the US will release/update a set of data highly related to “growth and interest rate paths,” including:
• Industrial production and capacity utilization
• New residential construction
• Trade-related data (imports/exports, etc.) 

These data will directly impact:
• USD strength/weakness (DXY)
• US bond yield expectations
• And consequently USD/JPY and global risk appetite

Before this week’s BOJ meeting, market reactions to “bad data” tend to be more intense:
• Stronger data → firmer USD/interest rate expectations → risk assets harder to rebound
• Weaker data → market bets on faster easing → possibly giving ETH a “short-term relief rebound,” but also risking larger volatility (initial rise then crash)

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4. Translate “events” into “ETH clear script”

Script 1: Continue risk contraction (bearish main scenario)

Trigger conditions (any two met to raise alert):
• ETH fails to rebound above 2,984–3,020 (rebound failure)
• US data tomorrow is stronger, USD/interest rate expectations tighten 
• Market continues to reinforce BOJ rate hike path this week 

Price path (visible on the chart as “next level”):
• First watch the 2,743–2,721 support zone

Script 2: Weak data leads to “technical rebound” (but still a rebound, not a reversal)

Trigger conditions:
• Weak data tomorrow, USD softens 
• ETH quickly recovers and stabilizes above 2,984–3,020

Target validation:
• First look at 3,063
• Then look at 3,154
If these levels are not surpassed, the rebound is more like “pressure relief,” not “trend reversal.”

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5. The three screens to watch most tomorrow
1. ETH: Will it recover above 2,984–3,020? (Failure to recover = weak rebound)
2. USD/JPY: Will it enter a higher volatility state? (This is more important than direction; rising volatility = deleveraging button) 
3. US bond yields/USD: First reaction to US data (decides whether risk assets can breathe)