In Q4 2025, with the concentrated rollout of US market altcoin ETFs, can altcoins really be bottom-fished?

Regarding the question "Can altcoins be bottom-fished?", the answer is not simply "yes" or "no." The current altcoin market, especially with the ETF implementations, has entered a highly differentiated phase where choice outweighs effort.

In short, blindly bottom-fishing carries significant risk, but a strategic positioning window for specific assets is opening. Future trends will bid farewell to broad rallies and be driven mainly by narratives such as "ETF compliance" and "real earnings and ecosystem value."

Current Status of the Altcoin ETF Market: A Tale of Extremes

The performance of listed altcoin ETFs varies greatly, clearly revealing the market’s fund preferences.

1. Leading Winners (XRP)

· Key Performance: Continuous net capital inflows, price rising against the trend.
· Specific Data/Conditions: Maintained zero outflows since listing; during the broad market decline in November 2025, XRP price rose approximately 7.2% countercyclically.
· Core Logic: Regulatory risk relief (settlement with SEC), practical narratives like "cross-border payments," and fee competition among multiple issuers.

2. Capital and Price Divergence (Solana)

· Key Performance: Massive capital inflows, but prices plummeted.
· Specific Data/Conditions: Net inflows exceeding $600 million, while SOL price collapsed about 29.2% during the same period.
· Core Logic: ETF inflows did not offset systemic sell-offs triggered by Bitcoin flash crashes; its unique "staking yield" feature (around 6-8% annualized) attracted long-term yield-seeking institutional capital.

3. Market Cold-Shouldered (Litecoin, Dogecoin)

· Key Performance: Very limited capital inflows, low attention.
· Specific Data/Conditions: Combined ETF assets of both are less than $14 million, with low trading activity.
· Core Logic: Outdated narratives (like LTC), lack of fundamental support (like DOGE), and misalignment with institutional rational investment demands.

How to Assess: A Layered Framework

Based on market performance, altcoins can be categorized into three tiers to evaluate their "bottom-fishing" value:

First Tier: Leading Core Assets (such as XRP, Solana)

· Bottom-fishing Logic: Have obtained ETF "regulatory approval," with relatively clear regulatory pathways, robust ecosystems, and institutional recognition. Their pullbacks are mostly influenced by systemic market risks rather than fundamental flaws.
· Risk Reminder: Even assets with strong capital inflows like Solana can crash in extreme volatility; ETFs are not a "price crash insurance."

Second Tier: Assets with Ecosystem Potential (such as Chainlink, Avalanche)

· Bottom-fishing Logic: Usually possess clear business models (like oracles, high-performance public chains), benefiting from long-term trends like DeFi, RWA, etc. The next batch of ETF candidates (like AVAX, ADA) may generate "approval expectation" rallies.
· Risk Reminder: Due to market cap and liquidity constraints, volatility is higher. ETF approval remains uncertain, and post-approval, the assets may face "good news exhausted" or price divergence like Solana.

Third Tier: Marginal and Speculative Assets (most Meme coins, outdated altcoins)

· Bottom-fishing Logic: High-risk gambling at extremely low prices, potentially driven by social media sentiment or unexpected events in the short term.
· Risk Reminder: This is the riskiest zone. Lacking fundamentals, the likelihood of institutional funds via ETFs entering is very low; assets are highly susceptible to zeroing out. The cold reception of DOGE ETFs has already demonstrated institutional disinterest.

Current Market Opportunities and Risks Window

Opportunities include:

1. Institutionalization Benefits: ETFs bring unprecedented compliance and institutional capital channels to altcoins. Funds are flowing out of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, some are shifting into altcoin ETFs, indicating capital is seeking new opportunities.
2. Selective Bull Market: A broad rally is unlikely, but a "selective bull market" driven by real demand (like RWA, staking yields), infrastructure, and innovation may be brewing.
3. Valuation Disparities: During panic selling, high-quality ecosystem projects’ prices may be unfairly suppressed, offering better long-term entry points.

Risks include:

1. Extreme Market Differentiation: The overall concept of "altcoins" as a whole has become invalid. Capital will concentrate on a few winners; most assets will be marginalized.
2. Liquidity Dependence Risks: ETF liquidity for small-cap altcoins heavily depends on underlying spot markets. Market declines could trigger a vicious cycle of redemptions and sales.
3. Diminishing "New Product Effect": Initial ETF listing inflows often include short-term demand from market makers. When the "honeymoon" period ends (e.g., Solana ETF experiencing first daily outflows in late November), the real test begins.

Investor Thought Process and Recommendations

1. Shift mindset from "speculating on coins" to "asset allocation": Instead of asking "Can I buy altcoins?", ask "Which altcoins are worth buying and why?" Deeply research project ecosystems, teams, revenue models, and regulatory status.
2. Prioritize ETF tracks: Assets already approved or highly likely to be approved for ETFs imply passing initial regulatory scrutiny, attracting institutional attention, and better liquidity. Consider XRP, SOL, etc., as the "blue chips" of the crypto world.
3. Focus on narratives with "real earnings": Seek protocols that generate actual cash flows or solve real problems, such as RWA, DeFi yield optimization, on-chain infrastructure.
4. Absolutely avoid "averaging down" with no fundamentals: Buying simply because prices are low without solid backing is highly risky. Examples like LTC and DOGE show that cheap doesn’t necessarily mean bottomed out.
5. Manage positions and hedge risks: Even if optimistic, control your position sizes and avoid risks concentrated in single assets. Consider maintaining core holdings like Bitcoin to balance volatility.

In summary, by the end of 2025, the altcoin market is not a beach for mindless "bottom-fishing," but a mining field requiring a magnifying glass and ruler for careful selection. Opportunities exist among those assets favored by the ETF era, backed by real value and narratives, while most noise assets will continue to sink. #现货ETF获批新进展 #Participate in creator certification program for a monthly payout of $10,000