There is a old saying, called "Coal flying and colors dancing,"

which means energy prices rise first, followed by a rise in non-ferrous metals. Because energy price increases are the root cause, once they rise, the smelting costs quickly go up. Then, the demand for new energy sources like wind, solar, and energy storage batteries, which hedge against fossil fuel costs, will also expand. In other words, the demand for non-ferrous metals will also increase. Rising supply costs plus increased demand will lead to significant gains in non-ferrous metals.

This round of silver and copper price increases did not wait for energy prices to rise first before soaring. This actually leads to another interesting story.

Gold, silver, and copper are all classical currencies, but unlike today's fiat money, they cannot be printed at will. Therefore, compared to the rapid increase of fiat currency M2, if these metals are still viewed as monetary assets, their exchange rates should also rise, rather than stagnate for ten or twenty years. But at that time, big players like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley came out and said that gold, silver, and copper are just industrial raw materials, no longer currencies, and no longer meaningful as stores of value. They even stopped making jewelry in 24k gold and switched to 18k gold and 925 silver, with jewelry like diamonds and sapphires outperforming gold, silver, and copper for years. Then Wall Street presented some charts showing the consumption and reserves of gold, silver, and copper in industry, as well as annual mining volumes, concluding that supply exceeds demand. As people gradually believed that gold, silver, and copper are primarily industrial raw materials, gold would only rise once every ten years, and silver once every twenty years. Copper's reserves are indeed limited, so its price tends to rise more frequently.

Now, central banks are buying gold in a big way, which has prompted retail investors to re-evaluate silver and copper. But there's still caution behind this. Who knows if Wall Street will come out again and say, although gold can store value, silver and copper are still industrial raw materials, and then manipulate the market for another ten years.

I'm mentioning this today because it reminds me that silver and copper are essentially knockoff versions of gold, and compared to ETH and BTC, their recent gains are definitely weaker. ETH is valued as a tech stock, while BTC is not; BTC has always been about the gold narrative, serving as a store of value.

When something is positioned as a store of value, its demand can be limitless, with no visible ceiling. When defined as industrial raw materials, supply and demand analysis is necessary. When viewed as tech stocks, the focus should be on whether there is potential for large-scale adoption.