Since late Nov, Polymarket priced a >90% chance of a Dec cut and nailed it ahead of the official announcement while Wall St consensus was split.
Looking ahead, these are the odds for the Jan 28 meeting: ✔️ No change 76% ✔️ 25 bps decrease 23% ✔️ 50+ bps decrease 1%
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Since late Nov, Polymarket priced a >90% chance of a Dec cut and nailed it ahead of the official announcement while Wall St consensus was split.
Looking ahead, these are the odds for the Jan 28 meeting:
✔️ No change 76%
✔️ 25 bps decrease 23%
✔️ 50+ bps decrease 1%