#美联储降息预测

If interest rate cuts are implemented, will the market crash? I’ll give you three key logic points.

This week, the Federal Reserve's last rate decision meeting of the year will be announced at 3:00 a.m. on Thursday. The current market widely bets on a rate cut. If it indeed materializes as expected, the risk assets will be the first to react, and the crypto market will always be the fastest to perceive the signal of “money getting cheaper.” The reason is straightforward: a rate cut reduces the cost of funds, and the crypto space is one of the most敏感 sectors to liquidity, even more so than the US stock market.

If a 25BP rate cut occurs this time, I expect the market to respond in three phases: the first wave is an emotional surge, with BTC and ETH quickly increasing volume and rushing upwards; the second wave is a retest, especially for BTC, which often spikes high and then briefly pulls back; the third wave is the trend phase, where altcoins may explode with a “catch-up rally.”

My trading strategy leans towards稳健: 1)提前 small positions in BTC/ETH, avoid heavy holdings to prevent missing the move; 2) if BTC stabilizes in key zones after the rate cut, add positions gradually; 3) for altcoins, only choose strong on-chain narratives like AXL, WIF, HYPER, etc., avoid weak structures; 4) avoid chasing orders around 3 a.m. to prevent high-frequency bot squeezes.

Overall judgment: if there’s a rate cut, a rebound will follow; if not, it’s just delaying the rebound. The market is already on its way.