Prices have risen, and large options traders have once again placed a bearish bet!

Today, let’s continue updating the market outlook based on options market bets before the FOMC... Take a look at the most traded strategic combinations in the past 48 hours.

The biggest bet: SHORT_RISK_REVERSAL, bearish outlook.

The top trading volume strategy accounts for the largest notional value (about $294 million).
One of the most traded combinations is: Buy 90000-P / Sell 98000-C 13DEC25
Directly betting that the price will fall below 90k, while selling the 98k call to collect premium to offset the cost of buying puts... believing that the price will not break above 98k.

The expiry is this Saturday, with 3 days left, which is a bet on the market trend after the FOMC. The bet is that BTC cannot break 98k before settlement and is likely to fall.

Because if the price exceeds 98k, it will result in a big loss; between 90k and 98k, a slight loss on premiums; dropping below 90k, big profit. This is a short-term bearish strategy.
The delta for this strategy is -679.3, which is a very clear signal of a short position.

He bought it yesterday when the price was around 93,800... At that time, betting on a market decline was reasonable... indeed a good point to short at a high level.

The second-ranked position is an institutional hedge order, which can be ignored...

The third is a BEAR DIAGONAL SPREAD (Puts), also a low-cost bearish strategy...

Worried that prices might crash in the future, so they bought long-term puts for protection. But buying insurance costs money, so they sold near-expiry puts (betting that there won't be a big drop in the short term) to earn back the premium.

This is essentially a free long-term short position... Profit from sideways, downward, or sharp drops...
Short-term surge will lead to losses...

So, this is also a bet that BTC will not surge in the short term...

In summary, compared to yesterday, the options market has shifted from cautious optimism to bearishness...
Actually, they are the same; yesterday when the price was around 90,000, they were cautiously bullish.
And when the price rose yesterday, they strategically positioned for a bearish move...
Let’s see what happens tonight...