Why is Powell unwilling to speak human words at this Fed meeting? Behind it are actually two dark battles competing.

Let's talk about Powell's own calculations first. Now what he is most afraid of is not "not cutting interest rates", but "saying it too clearly". Do you think that if you directly promise a timetable for interest rate cuts, the market will immediately be high - funds will run wildly in advance, inflation expectations will rise again, and it will be difficult to ride a tiger at that time. What's more, there is no consensus within the Fed on how hard the economy is and whether inflation will rebound. So he would rather play Tai Chi: neither to kill the words, nor to pour cold water on him, and to use the panacea of "data dependence" to keep the operating space. To put it bluntly, blur is his talisman.

But the market doesn't eat this set. Investors are now entangled: staring at Powell's official caliber, after all, he is the current chairman, and his speech directly affects the flow of short-term funds; On the other hand, the so-called "shadow chairman" - Brad and Williams and other core officials have hinted at relaxation before, which has become the anchor of long-term expectations. When the two signals fight, the long and short will naturally tear.

If Powell is still the same at this meeting and does not give a letter, then the market will be 80% convulsive. After all, everyone wants to follow the loose expectations of the "shadow chairman" and dare not ignore Powell's hawkish determination.

In the final analysis, this is the Fed's dilemma of "suppressing inflation or protecting the economy", encountering the deadlock of "certainty" in the market and "staying behind" in policy. As a risk asset, the crypto market naturally has to dance with this drama. Bitcoin's recent sideways movement is partly waiting for the outcome of this game.