Its 4-year cycle theory #crypto dựa chủ yếu vào #BTC related to the Bitcoin Halving event.

Bitcoin's cyclical structure typically goes through four main stages:
1. (Bull Market) bull market: A period of sharp rise in BTC prices, usually reaching new all-time highs (ATH) after each halving.
2. End of the Bull Run and start of the (Bear Market) Bear Market: The price peaks and starts a sharp downward correction (thường falls by 75-85% compared to the đỉnh).
3. (Đáy) accumulation period: The price is stable at a low level for a long time, many retail investors (FOMO) often leave the market during this period.
4. Recovery and Growth: The market begins to recover gradually, signaling the beginning of a new bullish cycle.
In which
The main factor driving this cycle is the halving event, which occurs about every 4 years (mỗi 210,000 blocks are mined thác), halving the rate at which new Bitcoins are created and limiting the supply.
History of Major Halving Events:
1st time (28/11/2012): Rewards reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.
2nd (09/07/2016): Rewards reduced from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.
3rd time (11/05/2020): Rewards reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.
4th time (19/04/2024): Rewards reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3,125 BTC.

But has this cycle been skewed in recent times? And what are the factors that affect that deviation?
1. Cash flows from Large Institutions and ETFs
The most important factor that has the potential to disrupt the cycle is the participation of traditional financial institutions through the launch of the Bitcoin Spot Fund (Spot Bitcoin ETFs) in the US in early 2024.
- Stable capital flows: Unlike retail investors who often buy and sell on emotions, large institutions and ETFs generate a steady and huge flow of capital into the market every day. This helps absorb new supply and can reduce price volatility, making the market less susceptible to the (sợ lỡ) FOMO and FUD (sợ fear, uncertainty, ngờ) that used to make cyclism tick in the past.
- Supply absorption: The amount of BTC that ETFs buy each day often far exceeds the amount of new BTC created by miners after the halving, creating a constant buying pressure.
2. Shock Supply After Halving
The fourth halving event (tháng 4/2024) reduced the block reward to 3,125 BTC/day. Combined with the huge demand from ETFs, the market is facing an unprecedented supply shock.
Scarce supply: The available supply on exchanges is increasingly depleted, making prices more susceptible to extreme volatility (có can rise faster or maintain highs for hơn) longer than following a gradual growth trajectory after halving as in previous cycles. Look at the chart you'll see.
3. Global Macroeconomic Factors
In previous cycles, Bitcoin operated relatively independently of the macroeconomy. Currently, BTC is considered a risky asset and is increasingly closely correlated with traditional financial markets (như S&P 500) and the monetary policy of Central Banks (đặc especially the U.S. Federal Reserve-Fed).
Interest rates and liquidity: Policy increases or decreases in interest rates, inflation, and the global liquidity situation can dominate the Bitcoin price trend more strongly than its intrinsic halving cycle itself.
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Warning: The content of this article is a personal opinion, not financial advice, not intended to entice investment. Be cautious with your own decisions!
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