84% Rate Cut Probability: The Market is Already Primed; The Real Breakout Depends on “Guidance,” Not the “Cut” Itself

Although the market keeps shouting: “A rate cut is coming! A rate cut is coming!” smart money knows that the rate cut itself is already priced in. What truly determines whether the market will rally hard is—the guidance on future rate cuts.

I believe there are three key scenarios:
① More Dovish Than Expected: The Most Bullish Scenario
If the dot plot clearly indicates more rate cuts in 2025 → this isn’t just a rebound, it’s a “market restart.”
BTC could head straight to previous highs, and altcoins will see a rush of capital.

② Neutral: Rate Cut with Stable Tone
The market will initially rebound 3–5%, then wait for the next inflation data to confirm direction.

③ Somewhat Hawkish: Rate Cut But No Promise of Future Easing
There will be a short-term rally followed by a pullback, but no crash; the market will enter a choppy phase searching for direction.

Trading Strategy Suggestions:
* Don’t bet on direction before the announcement; keep low exposure.
* After the announcement, watch BTC’s first 15-minute candle:
* Strong breakout → go with the trend, go long
* Unclear trend → wait another 30–60 minutes before making a decision
* Only enter altcoins and other major coins after they stabilize, otherwise you’re risking too much.
Final note:
A rate cut is just the fuse—the real market move is ignited by expectations.
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