2025-12-09 12:32:44

How low can Bitcoin go? Recently, there’s been a lot of buzz in the market about the “$35,000 bottom,” but analyst Sykodelic_ has presented a completely different perspective.

He believes that the lowest point of this cycle should be around $55,000. This judgment isn’t baseless. From a technical standpoint, the current market condition is more similar to the trend in 2019—back then, Bitcoin found solid support at the midline of the monthly chart and then started a new round of gains. In contrast, the cliff-like drop seen in 2018 hasn’t happened this time.

The key difference is that this cycle’s expansion pace is noticeably more restrained, without the kind of excessive exuberance seen in previous cycles. The technical support at the midline of the monthly chart remains solid, making the $55,000 level more convincing.

For ordinary investors, the most important thing right now is to maintain independent judgment. There are always plenty of voices in the market, but truly valuable analysis needs to be backed by solid data. Blindly believing in the “bottom theory” might cause you to miss real opportunities or make decisions in the wrong places.

Ultimately, those who make money in the crypto market are always the ones who can see the cyclical patterns, control their emotions, and operate rationally. Technical indicators are tools, but in the end, you still have to rely on your own judgment.

BTC-2.29%

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PancakeFlippa

· 12-12 11:48

Again, the bottom theory... This time saying 55,000, next time someone says 40,000. Anyway, I just hold my coins and wait. --- Mid-line of the monthly chart? Sounds intimidating. I only know that the more it drops, the happier I am to buy. --- Honestly, who the TM can predict the bottom? Rather than listening to various analyses, it's more practical to set up automated investments ourselves. --- Features of 2019? Can the current policy environment compare? Don't compare apples to oranges. --- "Understand the cycle patterns"—just hearing this tells me it's time to buy books again. All these catchphrases. --- I don't know if 55,000 is stable or not. Anyway, if it drops below this, I will increase my position. --- Independent judgment? My independent judgment is that all these voices are false. Let's wait until actual actions are taken. --- Every time, it's supported by data... but the data always gets proven wrong. I choose to believe my own instincts.

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NotFinancialAdvice

· 12-12 06:26

55,000 vs 35,000, to put it simply, it's still a game of guessing the bottom. I tend to trust the mid-line of the monthly chart more. Everyone has their reasons, right? Anyway, I don't believe anyone who claims to be always right. This round isn't as crazy as 2018, so it's just a reference. But the risk still has to be borne by yourself. It's easy to say "see the cycle clearly," but the ones who can really make money are a combination of luck and execution. Where the bottom is, someone has to pick it up. The question is, do you dare to buy the dip?

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DegenWhisperer

· 12-11 16:13

55,000 this number... Honestly, I believe it more than those claiming 35,000, which sounds more reliable. --- It's the same support at the midline of the monthly chart again. How did that prediction turn out last year? --- You're right, personal judgment is the most important. Don't get brainwashed by all these bottom theories. --- Understand the cycle patterns? Bro, I just want to know who has really figured them out. --- Technical indicators are just references; in the end, it still depends on luck, haha. --- 55,000 as a bottom? Then I guess I have to keep holding coins and wait? The pressure is a bit heavy. --- This analysis logic is pretty good, more reliable than those analysts who just talk nonsense. --- The monthly midline is stable... I've heard too many similar statements, only to be proven wrong each time. --- Instead of trying to find the bottom, it's better to think about how much you could lose. --- Finally, someone talks about controlling emotions. This is the real key to making money.

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unrekt.eth

· 12-09 13:02

Whether it's 55,000 or 35,000, to be honest, it's all just guessing. The key is to have your own understanding. Another month moving average midline support theory—people were saying the same thing around this time last year. The more technical indicators you use, the easier it is to fool yourself. You still need to look at on-chain data. This cycle isn't as crazy as 2018, but it's also not as mild as 2019—completely different situations. Don't get brainwashed by all those bottom theories; the real money-makers have already exited. Put simply, no one can predict accurately. Instead of listening to analysts talk nonsense, it's better to set your own stop-loss. I don't know if the monthly chart is stable, but my wallet is definitely experiencing volatility. I've heard plenty of these "data-supported" analyses, and they all end up getting proven wrong. There's nothing wrong with independent judgment, but market sentiment can change in an instant—who can really see through it?

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DefiPlaybook

· 12-09 13:01

55,000 vs 35,000, these two numbers are fighting it out, I'll just watch. Anyway, it's always retail investors like me who end up taking the loss [dog head] Is the monthly middle band really that magical? I just want to know if this time it'll be suddenly broken through like last year, and then analysts will change their tune and say "this is just a shakeout" Rather than guessing the bottom, it's better to pay attention to on-chain data—whale wallets will tell the truth Wait, why doesn’t this analysis mention laddered buying? Feels like something is missing The scariest are those analyses claiming "my judgment is the most rational"—those are often the ones who suffer the most They call it independent judgment, but in reality, it's just going all-in. If you lose, you have to bear it yourself

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OldLeekConfession

· 12-09 12:57

55,000 or 35,000, honestly, I'm tired of hearing about it—it's better to just look at the candlestick chart yourself. Anyway, the bottom is always at the next low point. Survive first, then make money, everyone. It's the monthly midline again. Can it support the market this time? What about last time when they said the same thing? Do you still have ammunition left? That's the real question. The technicals don't lie, but those who lie all love to talk about technicals.

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alpha_leaker

· 12-09 12:49

55,000 as the bottom still sounds too optimistic. Feels like the market has more room to drop. 35,000 and 55,000—honestly, they're both just guesses. No one can say for sure where the bottom is. I've heard the logic about the monthly midline support too many times. Every time they say it's solid, but look at what happens. Instead of obsessing over the bottom, it's better to think about whether you actually dare to increase your position. Why did we lose so much this cycle even though everyone was being so "restrained"? Anyway, I don't trust analysts. I'd rather figure things out on my own. Looks like they're just telling stories to justify their own long positions.

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potentially_notable

· 12-09 12:45

Whether it's 55,000 or 35,000, honestly it doesn't matter. The key is whether you have the guts to buy the dip. Yet another "I see through the cycle" analysis—just listen but don't believe it all. The narrative of monthly midline support always works, until the moment it doesn't. Instead of guessing the bottom, it's better to think about your own risk tolerance for losses. Technical indicators are just self-hypnosis; in the end, it all comes down to luck and timing. "Restraint" this cycle? From what I see, it's still pretty crazy. The more you listen to a bunch of analysts, the easier it is to get played.

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ImpermanentLossEnjoyer

· 12-09 12:44

Predicting the bottom again? I’ve heard this spiel so many times it’s getting old. How is Sykodelic so certain about $55,000... Look at history—who’s ever gotten these predictions right? But the monthly midline thing is kind of interesting; it’s much milder than in 2018. That part actually makes some sense. The key is not to get brainwashed by all these analyses—you’ve got to think for yourself. Setting stop-losses is a hundred times more reliable than guessing the bottom, seriously. Wait, is this just another round of “rational investor” talk? Haha, I’m buying it. Honestly, everyone wants to catch the bottom, but the problem is no one can know in advance.

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LiquidationWatcher

· 12-09 12:37

55,000 bottom? I don't think so. Technical analysis is just hindsight wisdom. It really stings, yet another analysis claiming "I have data to back it up," and what happens? Still proven wrong. With such solid support at the mid-line on the monthly chart, how is it still dropping like this? Where's the logic in that? I've heard this kind of talk too many times. There will just be new excuses next time anyway. After all, analysts don't have to pay for their predictions. But to be fair, making independent judgments is good advice—just don't get caught up in the hype.

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