If the Fed cuts interest rates, risk assets will rebound, but the magnitude of the rally depends on the “tone of the speech.”

The Fed’s interest rate decision announced this week is the most important one of the year. A 25bp rate cut is almost a consensus, but what the market really cares about is not “whether they cut” but “how willing they are to cut.”
If Powell cuts rates while emphasizing economic slowdown and persistent inflation, the rebound will be restrained; but if he also hints that “more cuts are coming in the future,” then this move could turn a small wave into a big rally.

So my judgment is:
Rate cut = bullish; dovish speech = surge; hawkish speech = dip first, then rally.
No matter which scenario plays out, the medium-term direction is bullish for risk assets.

My trading strategy is in three steps:
Step 1: Open light positions in leading assets ahead of time, don’t chase rallies.
Step 2: Don’t take action within 30 minutes after the results are announced—wait to see the direction.
Step 3: If there’s a sharp dip, treat it as a second entry point.

Key focus:
* BTC key range breakout
* ETH Beta performance
* Platform tokens (GT) correlation
* AI sector linkage strength

A rate-cut cycle means there will be trending opportunities in the next 6–12 months. What I’m doing now isn’t just a single trade, but positioning myself for the next market cycle. #美联储降息预测