Have you noticed a phenomenon:

$BTC has recently started to decouple significantly from US stocks,
and is no longer in sync with global M2 growth.

This article will tell you the reasons why, and how you should position yourself next.

First, the rise in US stocks is no longer a liquidity-driven bull market but an independent rally led by AI.

The main driver of US stocks this year is not monetary easing, but the explosion of the AI industry. Massive amounts of capital have poured into Nvidia, Microsoft, AI chips, and data center sectors, with almost all of the S&P 500’s gains contributed by tech giants. Thus, the US stock market is experiencing an AI-led bull run, not a broad-based liquidity bull, which naturally does not benefit BTC, leading to a decoupling.

Second, the relationship between M2 and asset prices is weakening.

The slowdown in global M2 growth hasn’t truly flowed into the crypto market. Where did the money go? Part of it went into US AI stocks, another part flowed into treasury money market funds, and some was used for short-term arbitrage. So it’s completely reasonable that BTC didn’t keep up with M2.

Third, Japan’s rate hikes are changing the global capital structure.

Years of ultra-low interest rates made the yen the world’s largest carry trade funding source. Now that Japan has begun raising rates, capital is no longer willing to borrow yen to buy high-risk assets. The unwinding of yen carry trades is tightening global liquidity, and high-volatility assets are hit first—Bitcoin naturally faces selling pressure.

Fourth, market expectations about Bitcoin’s four-year cycle are now having a reverse impact on its price movement.

Many investors believe the next halving will see the bear market arrive early, so they choose to sell early and lock in profits, further reinforcing BTC’s decoupling from traditional risk assets.

In other words: AI’s independent rally, M2 not flowing into crypto, Japan’s rate hikes draining liquidity, and the market front-running the four-year cycle all together have caused Bitcoin to decouple from US stocks and global liquidity in the second half of this year.

So, what should crypto traders do next to make money?

The core boils down to three points.

First, stop using the old framework to judge the market. BTC has transitioned from a liquidity-driven asset to one driven by macro and structural factors. The future theme is not “massive liquidity bull,” but “where is the capital flowing, who is seeing inflows, who is experiencing outflows.” Getting the direction right is more important than predicting the overall market.

Second, focus on two types of assets:
One is sectors with sustained real inflows, such as AI-related chains, computing power, data, and decentralized infrastructure.
The other is oversold assets on the policy and liquidity headwinds, but only enter after clear consensus signals at low levels emerge—don’t blindly bottom fish.

Third, manage your timing well. Global liquidity is tightening, and high-volatility assets will see repeated shakeouts. Don’t bet everything on one move; trade ranges, trade swings, trade events. Getting the direction right is important, but position sizing and timing are the keys to making money.

In summary:
Don’t cling to old logic. Trade in line with the new capital flows, seize structural opportunities, and patiently wait for a confirmed major cycle reversal.
#十二月行情展望