Today, the six major banks have completely stopped selling 5-year large denomination time deposits. The remaining 3-year deposits have also dropped to 1.5-1.75, and the 1-year fixed deposit is about to fall below 1%. The interest rate on deposits keeps decreasing.

The signals released are: first, the trend of declining Interest Rates, which is why long-term savings bonds are being discontinued; second, to compel residents to mobilize their savings, so that not all of it is deposited in banks, but rather to invest, consume, and enter the stock market.

Additionally, generally after a decrease in deposit 利率, there will be a subsequent decrease in loan interest rates. Therefore, it is possible that the central bank will cut interest rates once in December, and the latest will be early next year!

In summary, the 5-year deposit product is the flagship product of banks, and now it's gone without a trace. In the era of low Intrerest Rate, it seems that some deposits will really have to "move houses." Where will this money go? Most likely in three directions: buying wealth management products and gold, purchasing houses (in core cities and prime locations), and entering the stock market (broad-based index ETFs + dividends).

For the residential sector, housing, wealth management, deposits, and government bond yields are all continuously declining, while gold prices have risen to a high level. The common people's money has nowhere to go. Now, there are very few products that can compete with stocks as "high-yield assets," so why should we improve the stock market? Because we urgently need a reservoir to transfer some deposits to the stock market.

A few months ago, there was a lot of talk about moving deposits to the stock market, but now no one is saying anything. The main reason is that the A-shares have been weak in the past two months, and many people are afraid to enter!

A female friend of Dasi Ma has saved 1.5 million after working for 6 years. But recently she has been very anxious, saying that the returns on financial investments are getting lower; she wants to take the money out and asks if stock trading is feasible. She said an annual return of 8%~10% is acceptable, her requirements are not high.

Therefore, there is actually no shortage of money in the market now, and there is quite a bit of potential capital entering the market. However, the A-share market has not resolved two issues: first, reducing market volatility, and second, the market mechanism needs to tilt towards long-term investors! Why reduce market volatility? Because in a market with wild fluctuations, many people cannot make accurate judgments and are easily harvested by quantitative trading; why tilt towards long-term investors? Because if holding stocks for the long term does not yield profits, everyone will only engage in short-term speculation, making a quick profit and then fleeing.

I still have confidence in this round of market trends. There is only one reason for the end of a bull market, which is the depletion of incoming funds. Currently, there is still quite a lot of off-site capital, and it's only a matter of time before some deposits move. But how many bank deposits have moved to the stock market now? How many stock investors have made money? Therefore, it is still too early to say that the bull market has ended.

#A股