There is a clear divergence in market views regarding the U.S. stock market trends in December, with both optimistic and cautious perspectives coexisting.

The optimistic view mainly believes that:

· Trend Continuation: Some analysts believe that driven by AI innovation, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and the market completing position adjustments, U.S. stocks are likely to continue rising in December.
· Historical Pattern: According to historical data, December is a month of strong seasonality for U.S. stocks, with the average increase of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices exceeding 1.5%.
· Radical predictions: Some analysts even forecast that the market may experience a "melt-up," with the S&P 500 index potentially challenging the 7200-7300 point high.

The cautious view suggests:

· Market may be absent: Multiple institutional strategists warn that due to this year's market repeatedly diverging from seasonal patterns, combined with the high uncertainty brought by AI, the traditional "Christmas rally" may not occur.
· Volatility or becoming the main character: The market may not rise unilaterally, but rather exhibit higher volatility.
· Lack of clear direction: Some institutions believe that the overall US stock market may lack clear direction and remain in high-level fluctuations.