Analysis and Price Prediction of Bitcoin (BTC) Today, December 2, 2025: Turbulence Before an Important Threshold

Author: [Pseudonym] - Crypto market analysis expert
Date: 02/12/2025
DISCLAIMER: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should conduct their own thorough research (DYOR) and manage risk before making any trading decisions.
Market overview on the morning of December 2, 2025
Entering the first Tuesday trading session of December 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is showing significant hesitation after a hot streak at the end of November. The market seems to be holding its breath waiting for important macroeconomic data from the United States to be released this weekend.
As of the time of writing ( 09:00 AM Vietnam time ), Bitcoin is trading around $118,500. In the past 24 hours, BTC has moved within a narrow range from $117,200 to $119,800, indicating a fierce contest between the buying ( Bulls ) and the selling ( Bears ). The market capitalization remains solidly above the $2.3 trillion mark.
Technical Analysis (
1. Important Key Levels
The 4H and 1D charts are showing that BTC is being constrained within a symmetrical triangle accumulation model ) after the strong price surge to the historical peak of $125,000 last week.
Resistance (
$120,000 - $120,500: This is a strong psychological resistance zone. BTC has failed to break through this area 3 times in the past 48 hours. If it surpasses this with high volume, the path back to the old peak of $125,000 will be opened.
$125,000 )ATH(: The highest peak of all time has just been established.
Support )Support(:
$117,000: The 50 EMA on the daily chart is acting as an important dynamic support. Closing a daily candle below this level could trigger a short-term sell-off.
$112,000 - $115,000: A strong support area has been tested multiple times in November.
​2. Technical indicators )Indicators(
RSI )14(: Currently at 52 )Neutral(. This confirms the sideways state and the unclear trend of the market in the short term. No overbought or oversold signals.
MACD: The MACD line has crossed below the signal line on the 4H chart, indicating that the bullish momentum is weakening and short-term selling pressure is increasing.
Volume )Volume (: Liquidity is gradually decreasing as the price approaches the end of the triangle pattern, signaling a strong breakout about to occur )in one of two directions(.
Fundamental & Sentiment )
1. Impact news
The market is currently quite "news-empty" at the beginning of the week. Attention is focused on the Non-Farm Payrolls report (NFP) from the US next Friday. Institutional investors are showing caution, limiting the opening of large positions before there are clear figures on inflation and the health of the economy.
A long-term positive factor is the information that a large European pension fund is considering allocating 2% of its portfolio to a Bitcoin spot ETF at the beginning of 2026, helping to maintain the confidence of long-term investors (HODLers).
2. Fear & Greed Index (
The index is currently at 65 )Greed(, down slightly from the level of 78 )Extreme Greed( from last week. This indicates that the excessive excitement has eased and the market is becoming more rational.
Prediction Scenario for Today )2/12/2025(
Based on the analysis above, I lean towards the scenario that Bitcoin will continue to move sideways )sideway( with a narrow range for most of today's trading session. However, volatility may increase significantly during the US session )tonight according to Vietnam time(.
Below are two main scenarios that may occur:
Scenario 1: Accumulate and recheck resistance )Probability: 60%(
BTC will mainly fluctuate in the range of $117,500 - $119,500.
The bulls may try to push the price up to re-test the $120,000 area by the end of the day. If there is no unexpected news, the likelihood of being rejected here is high.
Appropriate action: Short-term trading )Scalping( in the range )Range trading(, buy at support, sell at resistance.
Scenario 2: Short-term adjustment )Probability: 40%(
If selling pressure increases and BTC closes a 4H candle below $117,000, we may see a quick correction to the $115,000 range. This is considered a healthy "buy dip" opportunity for the long-term uptrend.
Appropriate action: Patiently wait for price reactions at deeper support levels, avoid FOMO of catching a falling knife.
Conclusion: Today, December 2, 2025, is a day that requires patience. The market is in a fragile equilibrium state. Traders should closely monitor the price range of $120,000 ) to confirm an increase ( and $117,000 ) to hedge against the risk of a decrease (.
)( ‌