I woke up at #数字货币市场回调 to see BTC break through 83000 USD. Do you think this is just a technical pullback?

I stared at the pulsating number - 80%.

This is the market's betting probability on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December. January? It skyrockets to 90%. Sounds abstract? To put it another way: the global $19 trillion yen carry trade positions are sitting on a powder keg.

# Memory Can Speak

What happened on Christmas Eve in 2022, old traders remember. The Bank of Japan suddenly adjusted its YCC policy in the December meeting, raising the 10-year government bond yield cap from 0.25% to 0.5%. The result? A global market crash.

The calendar has now turned to December 19. Before the Christmas holidays, market liquidity has already dried up to its annual low. If the policies really tighten, how many times will the weak liquidity amplify the impact? No one dares to calculate.

# The Endgame of the Carry Trade

For decades, this trick has been played too smoothly: borrowing zero-interest yen, exchanging it for dollars, and throwing it into the US stock market and cryptocurrency market to earn high interest. Everyone is happy.

But once the interest rate is raised, the rules of the game are instantly rewritten. How fast can the capital flow back to Japan and retreat? Look at the data —

$BTC evaporated more than 20% in a single month.
$3.5 billion net outflow from spot ETFs.
Overnight, more than 400 million positions were liquidated.

The market has become as fragile as ice. A gentle step could cause it to collapse entirely.

# The double strangulation is taking shape

What's worse is the Federal Reserve. Powell didn't mention any policy adjustments tonight—this silence is even more dangerous. What does a period of silence usually mean? The calm before the storm.

Japan is tightening liquidity, and the U.S. is unwilling to ease. BTC is caught in the middle, facing dual pressure. There is no way out.

On the other hand, looking at the platform token of a certain leading exchange, the drop is painful to watch. The newly appointed BSC Growth Director has just taken office, but on-chain users are almost gone. How can growth be achieved? The project token price has fallen below the founding cost line, and what was once a star project is now a joke.

But don't panic just yet. The most anxious ones are not the retail investors - it's the platform and the new executives. Market rescue actions? They might already be in preparation.

# Calm down and see the road clearly

The carry trade liquidation is indeed fierce, but this is not the end of the world.

Flip through the historical ledger: After the last rate hike in Japan in 2024, $BTC refreshed its historical high in just three months. Short-term shocks and long-term trends are two different matters.

What should we focus on right now?
- December Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting
- Federal Reserve Dot Plot Update
- Trends of mainstream trading platforms

Don't rush to go all in. If you don't manage your positions well, no matter how big the opportunity is, it won't have anything to do with you. Only those who survive are qualified to take advantage of the next rebound.

The market is clearing and also filtering.