2025/12/02 $SOL The 4-hour level has shifted from high-level fluctuations to a clear downtrend. Follow the trend and focus on shorting on rallies or staying on the sidelines, avoiding blind buy the dip.

1. Price and volume analysis:

Initial phase (November 24-27): After experiencing a wave of price increase, the price formed a high-level consolidation in the 140-144 range. The trading volume gradually shrank after peaking (such as at 16:00 on November 26), indicating weakened buying power and insufficient upward momentum.

Turning Point (November 28-30): The price fails to effectively break through the previous high and begins to oscillate downwards. A bearish candle at 20:00 on November 30, accompanied by a large trading volume, broke below the recent oscillation range lower bound (around 137-138), issuing an initial warning of a decline.

Confirm the fall (December 1): At 00:00 on December 1, a long bearish candlestick with huge volume appeared (trading volume reached 209 million), and the price plummeted from around 133 to 127, which is a decisive signal for a trend reversal. Subsequently, the price weakly consolidated in the 125-128 range, with trading volume still active, but the rebound was weak, confirming that the bears dominated the market.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis:

EMA (Exponential Moving Average): The ema_fast (fast line) began to turn down around November 27 and eventually crossed below the ema_slow (slow line) around December 1, forming a "death cross," which is a classic medium-term bearish signal. Currently, the fast and slow lines are in a bearish arrangement and diverging downwards.

MACD:

The macd_dif (DIF line) peaked around November 28 and has been declining continuously, entering the negative territory on December 1.

The macd_histogram (bar line) turned from red to green and continued to extend after November 27, indicating that the falling momentum is accelerating.

Currently, both DIF and DEA are below the zero axis, and the gap is widening, strongly confirming the downtrend.

RSI and StochRSI:

The RSI has fallen from a high of 60+ on November 27 and has remained in the oversold zone below 30 continuously after entering December, indicating that the market is in a very weak one-sided downtrend.

The K and D values of StochRSI have also entered extremely low areas (latest data K=37.29, D=24.52). Although it shows oversold conditions, in a strong downtrend, the oversold status may persist and should not be taken as a simple buy the dip signal.

Trend judgment

Currently in a clear fall trend.

The market has broken down from the high-level oscillation pattern at the end of November, with all major technical indicators (price, moving averages, MACD, RSI) pointing towards bearishness. The decline is accompanied by increased volume, and the rebound strength is weak, indicating heavy selling pressure and momentum for the continuation of the trend.

Key Level Analysis

Resistance level above (pressure point to pay attention to):

1. Recent strong resistance: 128.5 130.0 area. This is the first oscillation platform after the big bearish candle on December 1, and it is also the area where the current EMA slow line (ema_slow) is located. Any rebound to this level that fails to break through with volume is a potential shorting or reduction opportunity.

2. Key resistance in the medium term: 133.0 to 135.0 area. This is the level where the previous decline broke (November 30 to December 1), and it is also the lower edge of the previous trading congestion area. If the price can return to this area, it will first face significant selling pressure.

3. Trend reversal confirmation level: above 140.0. Only when the price firmly stands above the previous fluctuation range can it be considered that the downtrend has been broken, transitioning to a range or upward trend.

Support level below (possible reversal or acceleration point):

1. Recent support: 125.0 126.0 area. The current price is hovering around this vicinity, which serves as short-term psychological and technical support. If it breaks down, the fall will open up new space.

2. Key support: around 123.0. The low point established on December 1 (123.11), if effectively broken, will further strengthen the downtrend, possibly seeking support at 120 or even lower.

3. Lower support: 120.0 (round number), 115.0, 118.0 (previously potential area of concentrated trading).

Summary and operational recommendations

Main trend: fall. Follow the trend, and the main idea should be to short on rallies or wait and see, avoiding blind buy the dip.

Key observation points:

Pay attention to the game within the price range of 125-128. If the rebound cannot stabilize above 128.5, then the possibility of a downward continuation is high.

Observe the trading volume. If there is a slight rebound with extremely low volume during a fall, it usually indicates weakness. On the contrary, if a K-line pattern (such as a long lower shadow) appears at a key support level with increased volume, it may signal a potential short-term rebound.

Pay attention to whether the RSI can form a bottom divergence in the oversold zone, which is a potential trend exhaustion signal, but it has not appeared yet.

Risk Warning: The market has entered an oversold zone and a technical rebound may occur at any time, but any rebound should be viewed as a correction within a downtrend until the main technical indicators (especially moving averages and MACD) turn positive again. Please strictly control your positions and risks. #十二月行情展望 #比特币行情观察