Sugar prices edged up today but lost steam fast. NY March sugar rose +0.14% while London white sugar gained +0.35%, hitting 3.5-week highs on buzz that India might boost ethanol prices—pushing mills to make more ethanol, less sugar.

But here's the catch: crude oil tanked over -2%, which kills ethanol's profitability. Result? Mills will crush more cane for sugar instead, flooding the market.

The real pressure comes from a glut forecast. ISO just flipped from predicting a 231k MT deficit to a massive 1.625M MT surplus for 2025-26, driven by India, Thailand, and Pakistan ramping up output. Brazil isn't helping either—Conab raised its 2025/26 forecast to 45M MT, and mills are crushing 46% of cane for sugar (up from 45.91% last year).

India's another headwind. ISMA bumped its 2025/26 production estimate to 31M MT (+18.8% YoY), meaning more exports coming. Strong monsoons (8% above normal) are fueling a potential bumper crop.

Bottom line: Global sugar production could hit a record 189.3M MT against consumption of only 177.9M MT. Ending stocks? Up 7.5% YoY to 41.2M MT. That's a lot of sugar chasing fewer buyers.