Cattle Market Slides as Traders Brace for USDA Numbers

Live cattle futures took a beating on Friday, dropping 27-62 cents across contracts. December contract wiped out $4.70 for the week—pretty rough. Spot cash trades in the North hit $215-219 (mostly upper end), while Southern buyers paid $222-224.

Feeder cattle got punched harder: January down $6.32 weekly, Friday close at $314.225 after a choppy session. CME Feeder Index sitting at $339.72.

What moved the market:

Trump just slashed tariffs on Brazilian beef from 40% to 26.4% (effective Nov 13)—could pressure domestic prices. October Cattle on Feed report showed placement down 10% YoY to 2.039M head, marketing off 8% to 1.697M. November 1 inventory hit 11.706M, in line with estimates but still 2.17% lower than last year.

Tyson Foods throwing a wrench in: closing its Lexington, NE facility (5,000 head/day capacity) and consolidating Amarillo, TX to single shift. That’s supply chain compression.

Wholesale boxed beef actually climbed Friday PM—Choice up 20¢ to $371.48, Select +$2.80 to $356.98. Spread compressed to $14.50. Federally inspected slaughter came in at 585K head (down 50K from last year).

Bottom line: Smaller supply + policy shifts + positioning ahead of USDA data = volatility lock. Traders squared up ahead of next week’s numbers.