LendingClub's Investor Day Reveals A Compelling Valuation Story

LendingClub just laid out some eye-catching medium-term targets at its November 5 Investor Day. Here’s the math that makes the stock look genuinely cheap right now.

The Growth Picture

The company is targeting 20-30% annual originations growth, expecting to scale from $10B to $18-22B annually over the medium term. Bank assets should climb from $11B to ~$20B. Not explosive growth, but consistent and sustainable — which actually matters more than flashy acceleration.

The ROE Arbitrage

Here’s where it gets interesting: management believes they can push return on equity from 13% today to 18-20%. That comes from three levers — more loans held on balance sheet, improving loan sale prices as rates stabilize, and disciplined cost management built during the 2023 crisis.

The Math Checks Out

Extrapolating the guidance: at 25% annualized growth (midpoint), LendingClub hits $20B originations in roughly three years. Apply their 19% ROE target to an estimated $2.4B equity base, and you’re looking at ~$450M in earnings. Today’s market cap is just $1.85B — meaning the stock trades at roughly 4x 2028 earnings.

For context, they’re also launching a $100M share buyback program. Management clearly sees the discount.

The New Markets

Personal loans (credit card consolidation) remain the core, but LendingClub is now expanding into home improvement financing via a Wisetack partnership starting 2026, plus acquired tech from bankrupt Mosaic. These new categories could add $2-3B in originations.

The valuation math is compelling — but execution always matters more than spreadsheets.