Indian Markets Poised for Bullish Run: Fed Rate Cut Odds Hit 82.9%

India’s stock market is gearing up for a strong Thursday session, riding on a cocktail of positive catalysts from both domestic and global fronts.

The Setup

Nifty futures are pointing higher, Wall Street wrapped Wednesday on a firm note, and Asian peers are staying steady. The real fuel? Renewed bets that the Federal Reserve will finally cut rates in December—and the probability just jumped dramatically to 82.9%, up from 30.1% just a week ago, according to CME FedWatch data.

Wednesday’s Action

India’s benchmark indices already showed what’s coming. Sensex surged 1,022.50 points (up 1.21%) to 85,609.51, while Nifty50 climbed 320.50 points (up 1.24%) to 26,205.30. Broad-based buying across sectors reflected investor optimism, fueled by weak U.S. economic data that reinforced the Fed pivot narrative.

U.S. stocks extended their winning streak—fourth consecutive session of gains—with the Dow up 0.7% to 47,427.12, Nasdaq jumping 0.8% to 23,214.69, and S&P 500 advancing 0.7% to 6,812.61. Dovish Fed commentary kept sentiment buoyant.

What’s Moving

• Geopolitical tailwind: Crude oil prices falling on progress in U.S.-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace talks
• FII flows: Foreign investors showing net buying interest
• Stock-specific action: Whirlpool in focus on promoter stake sale (7.5% at Rs 1,030/share floor price); Oberoi Realty announced Mumbai redevelopment deal; Salasar Techno won Rs 695 crore rail contracts

The Wildcard

A potential U.S.-India trade deal remains in flux—too much uncertainty there could cap the upside, but for now, the narrative is tilted bullish.

Bottom line: Fed pivot narrative + falling commodity prices + domestic M&A activity = classic recipe for a relief rally. Watch if Nifty can push past 26,300 resistance.