Fed dovish remarks ignite a rebound in US stocks, but tech stocks remain a concern.

The comments by New York Fed President Williams that “there is room for interest rate cuts in the near term” directly triggered today's market. The S&P 500 rose 1.38%, the Dow Jones increased by 1.52%, and the Nasdaq 100 went up by 1.14%. Even more impressive, these remarks pushed the probability of an interest rate cut at next month's FOMC from 35% to a staggering 70%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to a new low of 4.03%.

On-chain data also has highlights - the consumer confidence index was unexpectedly raised to 51.0 (expected 50.6), the one-year inflation expectation dropped to 4.5% (previous value 4.7%), and the 5-10 year expectation has even retreated to 3.4%. The signal behind this set of data is: inflation is not as fierce as before.

But this rebound is not stable. Boston Fed President Collins and Dallas Fed President Logan have both made hawkish remarks, suggesting that caution is needed before another rate cut in December. In addition, chip stocks and AI infrastructure stocks have been heavily impacted—NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, and others have all fallen more than 1%, with Oracle leading the decline in the S&P 500, dropping over 7%.

The most heartbreaking part is the cryptocurrency asset sector. Bitcoin has already fallen 35% from last month's high and dropped more than 2% today, hitting a new low in 7.25 months. Concept stocks in the crypto circle, such as MSTR, Galaxy Digital, and Riot, have all declined sharply, with MSTR even leading the Nasdaq 100 in losses, dropping over 6%.

The overseas market is also not optimistic - the European Stoxx 50 fell 0.95%, the Nikkei 225 plummeted 2.40%, and the Shanghai Composite Index hit a new low in 1.25 months, falling 2.45%. The Eurozone's November manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 49.7, marking the largest contraction in 5 months.

It is worth noting that the Q3 earnings season is nearing its end, with 82% of the 466 S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations, and Q3 earnings growth at 14.6%, far surpassing the expected 7.2%—the strongest performance since 2021. However, the market's current dilemma is not the performance, but whether AI investments can actually be profitable.

Highlights Summary:

• Rising expectations for interest rate cuts vs hawkish voices balancing
• Valuation pressure on technology/chip stocks remains.
• Crypto assets continue to explore the bottom
• Global economic data is weak