Why Most Investors Get the Stock Market Timing Wrong

Here’s a harsh truth: trying to time the market by month is basically gambling.

Data from 1928-2023 shows the S&P 500 went up in 9 out of 12 months on average. Sounds good, right? But here’s the catch—on a monthly basis, you’re right only 59% of the time. That’s barely better than a coin flip.

The real playbook? Stop thinking monthly, start thinking long-term.

The holding period matters way more than you think:

• Hold for 1 year → 69% odds of profit
• Hold for 5 years → 79% odds of profit
• Hold for 10 years → 88% odds of profit
• Hold for 20 years → 100% odds of profit (every single 20-year rolling period since 1928 was profitable)

Yes, you read that right. Zero losing 20-year periods in nearly a century of data.

The Myths That Kill Your Returns

“Sell in May and go away” — Pure BS. June-August typically sees solid gains, and July is historically the best month.

“September is the death month” — Partially true, but then October-November bounce hard. If anything, it’s a buying opportunity.

The S&P 500 also crushed every other asset class (international stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities) over the last 5, 10, and 20-year periods.

Bottom line: Index fund + time = wealth. Everything else is just noise.