Cryptocurrency Market Analysis (November 2025)

In November 2025, the cryptocurrency market has suffered a historic slump, with Bitcoin (BTC) leading the sharp decline and the overall market sentiment falling into an "extreme fear" state. This analysis will break down the market performance, core driving factors and potential trends from multiple dimensions.

I. Overall Market Performance

Bitcoin, the bellwether of the crypto market, plummeted more than 26% from its October peak of over $126,000 to below $90,000 in mid-November, even breaking through the $87,000 mark on November 21—the lowest level since April 2025. This decline completely erased Bitcoin's annual gains and triggered a domino effect across the market: Ethereum dropped by over 5%, Dogecoin halved in value, and most mainstream altcoins fell by more than 30%. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has shrunk by over $1.1 trillion since early October, with $600 billion evaporating in just two weeks, and over 220,000 traders being liquidated within 24 hours on November 21 alone.

In the top 100 market capitalization tokens, the top 10 tokens performed the worst, showing a high correlation with macro risk sentiment. By contrast, tokens ranked 50-100 had relatively smaller declines and showed early signs of decoupling, driven by niche narratives such as proxy protocols, privacy, and decentralized IoT (DePIN).

II. Core Driving Factors of the Market Slump

1. Macroeconomic Pressure and Liquidity Tightening

The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance has become a key suppressor of the crypto market. The core PCE inflation rate in October remained as high as 2.8%, far exceeding the 2% target, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that "interest rates will remain high for a long time", shattering market expectations of rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2025. This has pushed up capital costs, making non-interest-bearing high-risk assets like Bitcoin the first choice for investors to sell.

In addition, weak U.S. employment data (119,000 new non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate rising to 4.4%) and the slump in the Japanese market have further exacerbated risk aversion, with the crypto market being the worst-performing major asset class for three consecutive weeks.

2. Institutional Capital Outflow and Whale Distribution

Institutional funds, once the core driver of Bitcoin's rise, have staged a large-scale retreat. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for five consecutive weeks, with a total withdrawal of $2.6 billion, and BlackRock's ETF recorded a single-week outflow of $420 million—a historical high. Meanwhile, crypto whales have sold over $20 billion in assets since September, with a single large sell-off of 5,000 Bitcoins triggering a chain of stop-losses in the market.

3. High Leverage Triggering a Vicious Cycle

The current leverage ratio in the crypto market is as high as 18%. When Bitcoin broke through key price levels, programmed stop-loss mechanisms triggered a "domino effect": long positions with leverage of 20 times or more were liquidated in a concentrated manner, with the single-day liquidation volume reaching a maximum of $380 million. The vicious cycle of "falling leading to selling, selling leading to further falling" has amplified the market decline.

III. Positive Signals and Market Outlook

Despite the grim short-term situation, the internal structure of the crypto market is showing positive changes: the funding rate of Bitcoin perpetual contracts has turned negative for the first time since late October, indicating a shift in leveraged funds to short positions, while capital flows have returned to the spot market, and spot trading volume has remained stable despite the shortened holiday trading week.

1. Bearish Scenario (55% Probability)

If the Fed maintains high interest rates and macro risk sentiment does not improve, Bitcoin may further test support levels at $85,000 or even $80,000, and the "extreme fear" sentiment will continue to dominate the market.

2. Stabilization and Rebound Scenario (30% Probability)

Bitcoin's MVRV ratio has dropped to a low of 1.76—historically, when this value is below 2, it is often accompanied by a rebound. Some whales have already increased their holdings in the $92,000-$95,000 range, and if macro pressure eases, the market may stabilize and rebound.

3. V-shaped Rebound Scenario (15% Probability)

If credit events force the Fed to restart quantitative easing, or if the Fed cuts interest rates by 150 basis points in 2026 as predicted by Goldman Sachs, Bitcoin may stage a V-shaped rebound, with potential to return to $130,000 or even hit $200,000-$250,000 by the end of the year.

In summary, the crypto market in November 2025 is caught in a perfect storm of macro pressure, institutional outflows and leverage purges, but the completion of market deleveraging and the emergence of structural positive signals have also laid the groundwork for a potential rebound. Investors need to focus on the Fed's policy trends, institutional capital flows and key support level performances to navigate the high volatility.