$BTC ‌#成长值抽奖赢iPhone17和周边 #十二月降息预测 #反弹币种推荐 #加密市场回暖 #Gate广场圣诞送温暖

In-depth analysis of Bitcoin's recent market trends | Key movements and strategies from November 26 to 29

(Opening: 30 seconds)

"Hello everyone! Today is November 29, 2025. Bitcoin has experienced a roller coaster this week—from the psychological barrier of $90,000 to the resistance zone of $93,000, with intense back-and-forth trading. This article will take you through in 3 minutes: Why did it rebound after a 35% drop? Can it break through $93,000? How should retail investors operate?"

1. Current Price and Market Sentiment (1 minute)

1. Core Data
- Latest Price: $91,135 (CoinWorld, November 29, 01:11)
- 24-hour volatility: -0.41%, trading volume 49.665 billion, market cap 1.82 trillion
- Fear and Greed Index: 20+ (Fear is easing, but not yet at neutral)
2. Emotional Turning Point
- Whale Movements: Addresses holding 1000+ BTC have increased their holdings by 2.2% over the past three weeks, but have cumulatively reduced their holdings by 12% in November.
- Retail behavior: Exchange balances continue to decline, funds are being transferred to cold wallets.

2. Key Technical Signals (2 Minutes)

1. Focus of Long and Short Game

- Resistance Zone: 91,700 (Bollinger Band Upper Limit) → 93,500 (November 27 High) → $95,000 (Fibonacci 61.8%)
- Support levels: 90,000 (psychological barrier) → 87,600 (mid-November rebound starting point) → $81,250 (historical low) 2. Indicator interpretation
- MACD Golden Cross: Red bars increase, short-term bullish signal
- RSI rebound: increased from the oversold zone of 32 to 58, buying pressure has strengthened but not overbought.
- Futures Signal: The funding rate for perpetual contracts turns negative, short-selling power weakens. 3. Volume observation
- Volume Shrinkage Rebound: Be cautious of false breakouts if the trading volume during the rebound does not exceed 50 billion.

3. Multi-dimensional driving of fundamentals (2 minutes)

1. Macroeconomic Policy Game

- Federal Reserve rate cut expectations: December rate cut probability fluctuates between 29.8%-70%, dollar liquidity suppresses risk assets.
- Regulatory Dynamics: Progress on the US CLARITY Act has stalled, with insufficient momentum for institutional capital inflows. 2. On-chain structural changes.
- Long-term holders: Aged over 5 years, the holdings continue to grow, and bottom accumulation is evident.
- Miner behavior: The Puell Multiple is approaching the cycle bottom (0.85), miners' selling pressure is easing. 3. Market cycle positioning.
- Halving pullback period: After the halving in April 2024, historical patterns show that the pullback period lasts about 1 year, and we are currently in a mid-cycle adjustment phase.

4. Future Trend Forecasting and Strategies (2 minutes)

1. Long and Short Scenario Simulation

- Bullish conditions: Breakout with volume above 93,500 → Target 95,000 → Challenge the psychological barrier of $100,000
- Bearish Risk: Break below 89,000 → Accelerate down to 85,000 → Test ultimate support $81,250 2. Operational strategy layering
- Day traders:
- Long Position: 90,000- 91,700 high selling low buying, stop loss $89,500
- Short position: Light short near 93,500, stop loss at 94,500
- Medium to long-term investors:
- Investment interval: 87,000-90,000, build positions in batches, total position ≤ 20%
- Risk control baseline: reduce to 30% if it falls below $81,250

V. Risk Warning and Summary (1 minute)

- Black Swan Warning: The Federal Reserve's December decision to postpone interest rate cuts, exchange market crashes, and sudden regulatory changes.
- Core conclusion: "Bitcoin is oscillating in the short term between 90,000 and 93,500, and the medium-term direction depends on macro policies and technical breakthroughs. Remember: position management > precise timing, the final sprint in 2025, cautious individuals can wait for the $95,000 confirmation signal!"

(Ending: 30 seconds)

"Follow this account to get real-time Bitcoin strategies every day! Click the top right corner to subscribe and enable market alerts. In the next issue, we will deeply analyze the impact of the Ethereum Cancun upgrade on altcoins. Let's not miss it!"

Data Sources and Visual Recommendations

- Chart: 4-hour candlestick overlay with Bollinger Bands/RSI/Volume (marking key support and resistance)
- Dynamic Materials: Whale Address Holding Change Animation, Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy Timeline
- Risk Warning: Emphasize "High Volatility" and "Stop Loss Discipline" with a red flashing border.

(The copy structure refers to the search results, data as of November 29, 2025, 08:00)