The AI Infrastructure Time Bomb Nobody Wants to Talk About

There’s a $200 billion accounting problem hiding in plain sight across Silicon Valley, and it’s about to get very real.

The 72-Month Lie

Here’s the setup: Nvidia drops a new GPU generation every 12 months. By month 18, Jensen Huang is openly mocking anyone still using last generation hardware. But here’s where it gets interesting—Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta all depreciate these same $200 billion in AI servers across 72 months on their balance sheets.

That’s a six-year depreciation schedule on hardware that becomes functionally obsolete in 24 months.

When Amazon tested cutting just one year off this assumption during their February 2024 audit? Single quarter loss: $920 million. One. Year. One. Company.

The Math That Breaks Everything

Run the numbers across the industry:

• $200 billion annual AI capex spending
• 24-month technical obsolescence window
• 72-month depreciation schedule
• Result: $150-200 billion in phantom profits built into current earnings

These aren’t real cash flows. They’re timing differences between when hardware actually becomes worthless and when companies admit it.

Why Valuations Look Unhinged

Palantir at 449x earnings. Nvidia at 54x. Both exist in a world where the depreciation schedule holds. The moment it doesn’t—and it won’t—those multiples compress fast.

It’s the same accounting structure that preceded Enron, except applied to the entire $10 trillion AI market cap.

The Trigger Events

Secondary markets reality check: Late 2026 is when Blackwell chips flood eBay-style resale platforms at 50 cents on the dollar. Can’t hide from market price discovery.

Taiwan risk: 90% of advanced chips concentrated there. 36-month war game probability: 25%. A blockade doesn’t just stop new supply—it forces instant write-downs on current inventory with zero resale value.

Earnings restatement cascade: Depreciation schedules get revised downward. Earnings get restated. Debt covenants get breached across portfolios.

The 24-Month Clock

Hopper launched in January 2023. We’re 20 months in. If the pattern holds, the secondary market reality check arrives in late 2024 or early 2025.

That’s when the fiction becomes obvious.