U.S. stocks closed 3 hours early due to the Thanksgiving holiday, with the three major indices rising collectively for the fifth consecutive trading day. The Nasdaq rose by 0.65%, the Dow Jones by 0.61%, and the S&P 500 by 0.54%. The Nasdaq has accumulated a rise of 4.91% this week, the Dow Jones by 3.18%, and the S&P 500 by 3.73%. Most tech stocks rose, according to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed reducing interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 86.4%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 13.6%. The probability of the Fed cumulatively reducing interest rates by 25 basis points by January next year is 67.1%, with a 10% probability of maintaining the interest rate, and a 23% probability of a cumulative reduction of 50 basis points. Follow Yibo, we will continue to track the implementation of Fed policies, institutional capital flows, on-chain data changes, and other core signals, updating layout strategies and asset dynamics in real time.

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After bitcoin dipped to a low of 90615 in the morning, it stabilized and rebounded, entering a phase of oscillating upward momentum. The buying support at low levels was evident, gradually repairing the decline, and market sentiment briefly warmed up. In the evening, after the market surged to 93080, the momentum weakened, and it quickly fell back to 90157, erasing most of the daytime gains and approaching the morning low, with rapid switching between long and short positions. From a technical perspective, the 90000 round number is a core support level, being the key defense point for today’s two dips. If this level breaks significantly, the short-term rebound structure will confirm failure, likely opening a new downward trend. If 90000 is lost, the market will test lower support areas such as 89500 (previously effective support) and 88500 (the recent lower boundary of oscillation). Overall, bitcoin remains in a corrective pattern in the short term. Until it effectively breaks and holds above the 92000 resistance, the current oscillation is more inclined to accumulate downward momentum, and if the resistance is hard to break, the bears may dominate the momentum again.

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The Ethereum trend is synchronized and linked, starting steadily from a low of 2992 in the morning, rising to a high of 3097 in the evening before facing pressure and retreating, ultimately falling back to a low of 3009 for consolidation. Currently, the market shows a clear continuation of bullish momentum, with three consecutive strong daily candles and prices steadily approaching the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. The strong structure of the short-term cycle remains unchanged, with highs gradually moving up and no signs of stagnation in the bullish attack rhythm. On the four-hour level, after consecutive bullish candles, there was a small bearish correction. Although there is selling pressure at the upper track of the Bollinger Bands limiting price continuity, the overall upward channel remains solid, and the trend has not fundamentally changed. In terms of operations, it is advisable to enter long positions opportunistically based on key support levels.